India Supplied 60% of Europe's Bab-el-Mandeb Diesel Flows in August as Russian and US Volumes Sink

One Number Tells the Story: 60%

India supplied about 60% of all diesel that transited the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait toward Europe in August, according to a report from energy analytics firm Vortexa cited by PTI. That's roughly 200,000 barrels per day out of the total volume moving through the chokepoint, a figure that's nearly back to year-ago levels after flows through the route almost stalled entirely in March and April.

That 60% share means Europe's diesel supply through one of its most important shipping corridors now runs mostly through Indian refineries.

Why Russia Fell Off the Map

Russia used to be a heavyweight supplier of diesel to Europe. Not anymore. Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged only about 150,000 barrels per day during the first 25 days of August, according to Vortexa. That's down roughly 610,000 barrels per day from a year earlier, and 81% below the five-year seasonal average.

The cause isn't a mystery. Vortexa recorded 32 attacks on Russian refineries in July and August, carried out by Ukrainian drones. The Perm refinery, which has capacity to process 260,000 barrels per day, was left running at only about 28% of its crude distillation capacity after being hit. Diesel shipments out of Tuapse, a key Black Sea export terminal, have stayed suspended since a strike there in May. The Black Sea corridor accounted for about 44% of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year, roughly 380,000 barrels per day, and that flow has been gutted.

Russia's own export ban on diesel was scheduled to begin easing on September 1, but Vortexa's reporting, cited across multiple outlets including The New Indian Express and Madhyama Online, makes clear that policy change alone won't fix a refining and infrastructure problem. You can't export diesel you can't produce.

The US Pulled Back Too

Russia wasn't the only supplier retreating. According to NDTV Profit's reporting on the same Vortexa data, US diesel shipments to Europe fell from roughly 540,000 barrels per day in the first half of August to about 350,000 barrels per day in the second half, a drop of roughly 35%. Ground News' aggregation of the story confirms the same swing. No source explains exactly why US volumes fell that sharply mid-month.

India's Surplus, and Its Limits

India's ability to step into this gap comes from simple math. It's the world's fourth-largest refiner, with installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per year, well above what the country needs for its own fuel demand. India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in fiscal year 2025-26, according to official data cited by PTI, making it one of the largest refined-fuel exporters on the planet.

But there's a catch. India's own crude and condensate imports fell to about 3.8 million barrels per day in August, down from 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier, per Vortexa data reported by both The New Indian Express and Rediff Money. That's the second straight month of decline. You can't keep refining and exporting diesel at this pace if the crude coming in keeps shrinking.

NDTV Profit's reporting adds a detail the other outlets skip: Russia itself has been forced to import record volumes of gasoline to cover its own refinery outages, relying on sanctioned tanker fleets and ship-to-ship transfers involving India, Turkey, and Morocco. That's a separate flow from the diesel story, but it underscores how tangled and improvised the current energy trade has become across sanctioned and non-sanctioned players alike.

What Europe Is Actually Facing

European diesel inventories are already low heading into the season when refineries typically shut down for maintenance and demand peaks for winter heating and transport. NDTV Profit frames this plainly: Europe's diesel supply chain is now concentrated around one country's refining surplus, with minimal buffer if anything else goes wrong.

Russian supply is down because its refineries are getting hit. US supply just dropped 35% in a single month with no stated explanation. That leaves India carrying 60% of the load through a single strait, while its own crude feedstock is shrinking for the second month running.

The open question: if India's crude imports keep falling into the fall, does New Delhi prioritize its own domestic fuel needs over export volumes bound for Europe? Vortexa's data covers August. Whether India's refiners can hold that 60% share through the winter heating season, when European demand peaks and Russian output is unlikely to fully recover even with its export ban easing, remains to be seen.