Hurricane Polo Set to Strike Baja California Sur Tonight, Mexico Braces for Second Landfall Tuesday

Since Mexico deployed 7,000 troops ahead of Hurricane Polo's Category 3 approach to Baja California Sur earlier today, the storm has held together over open water and is now bearing down for landfall on the peninsula's west coast this evening, according to the National Hurricane Center's Monday afternoon forecast discussion.

NHC Hurricane Hunters flew into Polo on Monday and found a well-organized storm with a 23-nautical-mile-wide eye, though the eyewall had opened up to the southwest, per the agency's forecast discussion number 33, issued at 2 p.m. MST. Flight-level and Doppler radar data put Polo's intensity at 100 knots, or roughly 115 mph, keeping it at the threshold of a major hurricane as it closes in on landfall near Puerto San Andresito.

The NHC forecast has Polo crossing Baja California Sur tonight, briefly moving over the Gulf of California, then making a second landfall on Mexico's mainland northwest coast Tuesday morning. Forecasters expect rapid weakening once the storm moves over the peninsula's rugged terrain, with Polo eventually degenerating into a trough before any remnants reach the southwestern United States, where they could still bring heavy rain to Arizona, New Mexico and Texas later this week.

From Triple Category 5 to a Direct Hit

Polo's path to this point has been extreme. Breitbart reported, citing the Daily Mail, that the storm reached Category 5 strength on three separate occasions this past week, making it the first recorded Eastern Pacific hurricane to do so. NASA atmospheric scientist Gary Partyka described the intensification as "RAPID, rapid intensification," and one meteorologist quoted by the Daily Mail said Polo's Thursday convection was "shattering the record book," floating the idea that the storm might qualify for an unofficial "Category 6" if one existed.

No such category exists on the Saffir-Simpson scale the NHC actually uses, which tops out at Category 5 for winds of 157 mph or higher. The talk of a sixth category reflects informal discussion among some meteorologists about whether the scale needs updating for storms intensifying in warmer oceans, not an official NHC designation or forecast change.

Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany working on a NASA satellite project, told NPR that Polo was "one of the strongest storms ever in the Pacific basin," with sustained winds hitting 165 mph earlier in the week, a level rivaled in the region only by Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph peak in 2015. Sea surface temperatures beneath Polo ran as high as 90°F, according to Breitbart, several degrees above the roughly 82°F threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said earlier in the storm's life that experts did not expect Polo to make landfall at all. That forecast has since shifted, with the NHC's current track putting the storm on a direct collision course with Baja California Sur.

On the Ground in Mexico

Mexico's navy has moved personnel and humanitarian aid to the ports of Guaymas and Mazatlan and deployed three vessels capable of reaching coastal communities cut off by flooding, according to Oregon Public Broadcasting.

In Puerto San Carlos, a fishing town of about 5,700 people, fisherwoman Rocío Sánchez told the Associated Press that Civil Protection ordered evacuations because earthen storm barriers built to hold back flooding "could give way" under Polo's tides and waves. Some residents planned to shelter roughly 37 miles away in Ciudad Constitución.

In San Juanico, a small fishing community that only got full-time electricity a few years ago, hotel manager Gloriely Robles Meza said army soldiers arrived to set up a shelter. "Our people are concerned about this event," she said. "We haven't faced such a worrying situation in many years." Laura Velázquez, national coordinator of Mexico's Civil Protection Agency, said ports across the region would close and travel would be suspended near the expected landfall zone.

A New Storm, and Hawaii Still Recovering

A new system, Tropical Storm Rachel, formed Sunday off Mexico's southwest coast with 40 mph winds, centered about 300 miles south of Acapulco. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect for Rachel as of Monday.

Meanwhile in Hawaii, Hurricane Nolo has moved away from the Big Island, though wind and high surf advisories remained in effect through Monday morning, according to PBS. Residents in Naalehu were still clearing silt-covered roads and surveying damage to a bakery, fire station and hardware store from an earlier storm, Oregon Public Broadcasting reported. National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec said the Pacific's unusually active season, with storm activity running above average, is consistent with patterns seen in El Niño years.

The open question now is how much of Polo survives the crossing into the U.S. Southwest. NHC forecasters say the storm's remnant vorticity will interact with a trough already swinging into the region, but the exact rainfall totals and timing for Arizona, New Mexico and Texas remain unsettled pending Tuesday's landfall in mainland Mexico.