Hurricane Marie Won't Hit California, But It's Already Reshaping Labor Day Weekend Beaches

Hurricane Marie is not coming for Southern California. Everyone from the National Weather Service to UC climate scientist Daniel Swain has said so this week, repeatedly, in plain language.

"The odds of an actual hurricane landfall from this particular weather setup was, and remains, essentially zero," Swain wrote in a blog post, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.

That doesn't mean SoCal skates through Labor Day weekend untouched. The danger shifts from wind and flooding to something Californians underestimate every year: the ocean itself.

What Marie actually did

Marie formed off Mexico's Pacific coast early this week and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 11 p.m. ET on Sept. 2, according to the National Hurricane Center as reported by the Epoch Times. By Sept. 3, sustained winds had climbed to 90 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 230 miles from the center.

The storm's track has consistently pointed northwest, out to sea, away from the mainland. National Weather Service meteorologist Rich Thompson told LAist the forecast track has Marie continuing to move "off to the west and northwest, further and further away." The Los Angeles Times reported the storm's closest approach to L.A. will be roughly 800 miles offshore.

The beach impact is real, even from 800 miles out

Hurricanes don't need to make landfall to mess with the coast. A south-to-southeast swell generated by Marie is expected to bring 6- to 8-foot surf to Southern California beaches, according to the Los Angeles Times, with the largest waves hitting from Oceanside northward, per Patch. The National Weather Service's San Francisco office issued a beach hazards statement warning of 10-foot waves and strong rip currents starting Friday morning and running through Monday evening.

Evening high tides are forecast to reach 6.5 to 6.8 feet Sunday and roughly 7 feet Monday, according to Patch, raising the risk of coastal flooding in Avalon, the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Malibu and Point Mugu, per the Los Angeles Times. Patch reported portions of Santa Barbara County could see impacts too, depending on swell direction.

Rain chances vary by source but agree on the broad strokes. Patch put the odds of widespread light rain from Sunday through Tuesday at 50% to 60%, totaling 0.10 to 0.50 inches, with a 10% to 15% chance of heavier rain and thunderstorms. The Los Angeles Times cited a lower 5% to 10% chance of thunderstorms and up to a quarter inch of rain. Humidity is expected to climb into the 35% to 50% range with coastal temperatures in the mid-80s.

Newport Beach isn't waiting around

The city of Newport Beach didn't treat "essentially zero" chance of landfall as zero risk. Crews began building 20-foot-high, 20-foot-wide sand berms on both sides of Balboa Pier, according to CBS News, using roughly 200,000 cubic yards of sand and paying contractors to compress a two-week job into four days at a cost of $20,000.

Municipal operations director Zac Gentry told CBS News the city is bracing hardest for Sunday and Monday. The urgency traces back to 2020, when a smaller berm— 20 feet high but only 6 feet wide—failed during king tides, flooding a parking lot, a dozen cars and grounding a sailboat.

A New York Post headline flagged by aggregator Ground News used the phrase "race against time to build defenses as hurricane barrels off California." That language overstates the direct threat given that every forecaster in this story, including the National Weather Service itself, has described the odds of a direct hit as "VERY LOW" or "essentially zero." Newport Beach's berm project is a precaution against swell and tide, not an incoming hurricane.

Why lifeguards are worried

The ocean has already been busy. Los Angeles County lifeguards performed more than 1,200 ocean rescues last weekend alone, according to LAist, as more than a million people visited L.A. County beaches. Newport Beach Lifeguard Battalion Chief Adam Yacenda told CBS News rip currents "can sweep your feet out from under you and wipe you out to sea in a very short matter of time."

The bigger Pacific picture

Marie isn't the only storm churning. Hurricane Karina reached Category 3 strength with 115 mph winds roughly 1,200 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, as of Sept. 3, according to the National Hurricane Center via the Epoch Times. Forecasters expect Karina to turn north, miss the islands and weaken.

Hurricane Lowell is the bigger concern. It briefly hit Category 5 strength on Sept. 2 before settling at Category 4 with 140 mph winds by Sept. 3, about 450 miles south-southwest of Hilo. The National Hurricane Center warned Lowell "could be at or near major hurricane strength when it moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night," urging residents to have hurricane plans and supply kits ready. That timing puts a potentially major hurricane approaching Hawaii on Labor Day itself.

For Southern California, the open question is how much of that quarter-to-half inch of forecast rain actually materializes, and whether the reinforced Newport Beach berm holds up better than its 2020 predecessor did. For Hawaii, the question is whether Lowell weakens on schedule before its expected turn north, or whether the state's westernmost islands face the storm surge, wind and rainfall the National Hurricane Center is warning about heading into the holiday.