Fox News Poll Puts Trump Approval at 36%, AP-NORC Finds 17% Approve on Cost of Living, Weeks Before Midterms

Two new national surveys have landed weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, and both point the same direction for the party in power.

The Fox News poll has President Trump's overall job approval at 36%. That is the lowest he has ever recorded in a Fox survey, in either term. It had held at 39% since May.

The AP-NORC poll has only 17% of U.S. adults approving of his handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, a new low in that survey and 14 points below March 2025.

Prices are the problem

In the Fox poll, six in 10 voters name the cost of living as their top economic worry. Government spending is next at 15%. Tariffs came in at 6%.

Seventy-four percent rate the economy negatively. Fifty-three percent expect it to get worse next year. Only 18% say their family is better off than two years ago. Among independents, 52% say they are worse off.

Fifty-five percent say inflation is "not at all" under control, up from a low of 45% earlier this year. That includes 30% of Republicans. Trump's approval on inflation in Fox's survey is 22%, down from 36% last summer.

AP-NORC found 65% of adults blame Trump's policies for persistently high costs rather than factors outside his control. About half now say they are "extremely" or "very" concerned about being able to fill their tanks, up from 39% in July. About 7 in 10 say his handling of the cost of living is "worse than expected," including roughly half of Republicans.

The pain shows up at the pump and the grocery store. The Energy Information Administration puts regular gasoline at $4.47 a gallon, $1.35 higher than a year ago. Diesel is $6.38, $2.63 higher than this time last year. Ground beef prices are up 22% since Trump returned to office, and they remain high despite his decision to open U.S. markets to more beef imports, which angered U.S. producers.

The ballot numbers

Fox found 54% of voters would back the Democrat in their House district and 45% the Republican. Last month it was 51%-44%. Among voters who say they are certain to vote, the margin narrows to 52%-46%.

Seven in 10 say they will vote to send a message to Trump. Nearly twice as many say they are voting to express opposition (47%) as support (25%).

Trump's approval among Republicans is 76% in Fox's poll. That is down 3 points since last month and 16 points since March 2025.

Border security is the one issue near even, at 50% approve and 50% disapprove. Disapproval is 56% on immigration, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy.

What the White House says

The administration does not dispute the polling so much as the conclusion. Trump told Breitbart News on a Wednesday, before departing for a campaign stop in San Antonio, that "We're beating Iran very badly" and that the country is seeing historic investment and low crime.

He said "the largest amount of money in history ever put into a country; $21 trillion." The official White House website lists $11.2 trillion in investment commitments since the administration began. Those are commitments, not completed spending.

On crime, a Council on Criminal Justice study found the lowest murder rate in major cities since at least 1900, with homicides on pace to fall further in 2026. Trump has also cited 1.1 million fewer violent crimes in 2025 than in 2024.

The macro numbers are not bad. GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter. The S&P 500 was up 12.8% for the year at a recent Friday close, less than 1% below its record, and the Nasdaq was up 17%.

National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett argued on CNN that strong consumer spending suggests the polls misread public sentiment. "I would say the pollsters are wrong," he told Jake Tapper. He also said that if he tells people the economy is great, "it looks like I'm insensitive."

Trump has conceded a communications failure. At a Sept. 30 White House event he said he had done "a very bad job of explaining" how well the country is doing.

Dividend promise and Democratic plans

Trump has promised a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to every adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers. He says tariff revenue would pay for it. AP estimates the cost at roughly $1.2 trillion.

House Democrats are drafting a 100-day agenda built on affordability and oversight of the administration if they win the House. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, in line to become speaker, said Democrats will be united "right out of the gate."

The party is also spending in districts that have been long shots for years, betting on the unpopular Iran war and upheaval in the armed forces. It has fielded veteran candidates in Colorado, Florida, South Carolina and Virginia districts with significant veteran populations. Nearly 6 in 10 veterans voted for Trump in 2024, according to AP VoteCast.

Turnout is the open variable. Fox's own numbers show the Democratic margin narrowing among voters who say they are certain to vote. Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox poll, said Republicans have time to close the gaps, "but it's getting late." Whether Trump's aggressive rally schedule can do that before Nov. 3 is the open question.