New York Fed: Tariffs Added About 2.9 Points to Consumer Goods Prices, One-Third of It on U.S.-Made Products

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts a number on what tariffs have done to shelf prices. The researchers estimate tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to prices across the consumer goods they studied.

Without the tariffs, prices on those goods would have fallen last year and into early 2026. Instead they rose.

The finding that stands out is where the increase landed. About two-thirds of the tariff-related price rise came from imports. Roughly one-third came from products made in the United States.

The promise behind the tariffs was that they would shift buying toward domestic goods. Instead, the New York Fed's estimate indicates that domestic producers also raised prices.

The White House response

The administration rejects the premise that Americans are footing the bill. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital that President Trump's agenda is "reshaping the international economic order to reduce our trade deficit, revitalize American manufacturing, and deliver lasting benefits to our workers, farmers and producers."

Rogers added that the administration maintains foreign exporters, who depend on access to the U.S. market, will ultimately bear the cost.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said manufacturing is "roaring back at its fastest pace in years" and called it a "manufacturing renaissance." After the August payroll report showed factories adding jobs, the White House called it "explosive."

The Daily Economy, a policy publication, answers that the 2025 and 2026 comparison favors the economists who warned against tariffs. It notes the average effective tariff rate peaked at 22.4 percent in April 2025, the highest since 1909, against about 2.4 percent in 2024.

The administration's own messaging has also pulled in different directions. Solicitor General John Sauer told the Supreme Court the tariffs are "regulatory tariffs," not "revenue-raising tariffs," and that revenue is "only incidental." Other officials had pitched them as a source of trillions of dollars.

Steel: mills gain, buyers pay

Steel is where the tariff design is working most visibly, at 50% on imports.

U.S. hot-rolled coil, the benchmark steel product, reached $1,255 per short ton, the highest since May 2022, Bloomberg reported. That is up 52% in a year. U.S. prices run about two-thirds above Europe's and nearly triple China's.

The American Iron and Steel Institute says finished steel imports fell 14% to roughly 13 million tons from January through September. Imports' share of the U.S. market dropped to 16% from 19% a year earlier.

Producers are collecting. Nucor, the largest U.S. steelmaker, has seen its stock rise more than 50% this year. Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics have also benefited from firmer prices and less foreign competition.

The cost goes to the buyers. Data-center developers, builders and manufacturers are paying more, according to Bloomberg. Josh Spoores of CRU Group said buyers have held back import orders because of restrictions and "a constantly evolving trade policy with key partners such as Canada and Mexico," which has created a supply shortage.

Mills are scheduled to take more than 1 million tons of capacity offline for maintenance between September and December, which points to tighter domestic supply through year-end.

Canada adapts, at a cost

Canada sent about 90% of its steel exports to the U.S. before Trump raised the steel tariff from 25% to 50% in June 2025. Those shipments fell 60% in 2025, according to the Canadian Steel Producers Association. Hundreds of steelworkers have been laid off.

The United Steelworkers says the domestic share of steel used in Canada rose to 51% in 2025 from 41% in 2024. Mining, energy and AI data-center projects are driving some of that, including a 1.2-gigawatt data center under construction in Saskatchewan. The recovery is uneven and concentrated in western Canada.

Ottawa is also propping up the industry. In May it announced C$1 billion in loans to steel, aluminum and copper producers and extended a cap on foreign steel entering Canada.

Cleveland-Cliffs said last month it would pause part of the work at its Canadian subsidiary Stelco with no restart date, a move that could affect up to 500 workers. The Canadian government has warned it may take the company to court over job commitments made when it bought Stelco in 2024 for C$3.4 billion.

In August, the U.S. was weighing a cut in the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% as part of a bilateral deal under negotiation. The specifics had not been finalized then.

Copper: a stockpile built on a threat

The copper market shows what tariff uncertainty alone can do. Since Trump ordered a study of copper tariffs in February last year, traders have shipped metal into the United States ahead of a possible levy.

Comex stocks are up nearly 750% since the end of February last year, to more than 714,000 tons. Macquarie estimates total U.S. copper stocks, on and off exchange, at about 1.6 million tons. Comex-approved warehouses hold roughly 70% of the world's visible copper stocks, which has created shortages elsewhere and pushed prices up despite a global surplus. Comex copper hit a record $6.83 a pound, or $15,057 a ton, on Sept. 22.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Charles Cooper said the U.S. built the stockpile "without spending taxpayer money." Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said only traders are making money and that cheaper ways to collect the metal existed.

The incentive is fading. The price gap between Comex and London Metal Exchange copper peaked above $3,000 a ton last July and is now about $310.

The Commerce Department was due to report on the domestic copper market by June 30. That report was to inform a decision on a 15% tariff on refined copper imports starting Jan. 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. No decision has been announced.

Macquarie's Alice Fox sees the most likely scenario as the January deadline passing without a decision, leaving the question open.

What comes next

The copper question goes to the industry's annual gathering, LME Week in London, which starts Oct. 18. The Jan. 1 start date for the proposed copper tariff leaves under three months for a decision. In the meantime, voters will weigh the New York Fed's 2.9-point estimate against the administration's argument that foreign exporters, not American shoppers, will end up paying.