Diesel Hits a Record $6.53 a Gallon and Splits Republicans Over an Export Ban Trump Hasn't Decided On

Since diesel broke $6 a gallon for the first time in early September, the national average has climbed to $6.53, according to AAA figures cited by the Daily Wire and Transport Topics. California drivers are paying roughly $8.43 a gallon, per Breitbart, citing UPI reporting. That's up more than $3 a gallon from a year ago, before renewed fighting with Iran and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure scrambled global fuel supply.

The price spike is now doing something unusual: uniting Republicans and Democrats in swing races around the same fix, and splitting Trump's own party over whether that fix would even work.

Republicans Break With the White House

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) posted on social media over the weekend of September 19-20 demanding Trump embargo diesel exports, writing that $6.57 diesel in Iowa is "KILLING FARMERS INCOME." Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who trailed Democratic challenger Mary Peltola in an earlier round of voting, called for the same on September 22, saying "American fuel should stay home with Americans." Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson made similar appeals in campaign videos, according to Transport Topics, which credited the reporting to Bloomberg News. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he was open to exploring the idea.

Hinson's Democratic opponent, Josh Turek, also called for an export ban as part of his own economic plan, according to Transport Topics. This isn't strictly a partisan fight. It's vulnerable incumbents and challengers in both parties reaching for the same lever.

Trump has signaled he's considering it. "I've called for that, too. I said, 'Let's not send out the diesel.' We make a lot of diesel," he told reporters during a trip to the United Nations, according to the Daily Wire. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration was weighing the option. Politico reported the White House was considering a 90-day export ban specifically. The White House called that story "fake." No policy has been announced or enacted.

Trump's Own Energy Secretary Isn't Sold

Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared skeptical at a climate event that an export ban would actually lower prices, the Daily Wire reported. The oil industry agrees with him. Elevation Resources CEO Steven Pruett called it a "bad idea" that "will backfire on American consumers" by disrupting normal supply flows, he told The Wall Street Journal. Canary CEO Dan Eberhart warned it would damage relationships with overseas customers the industry has spent years developing. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers argued the answer is "more supply and more flexibility, not new restrictions."

The underlying cause of the diesel spike isn't really export volume. It's disruption. Saudi Arabia had to shut down its 750-mile East-West pipeline after Houthi attacks, forcing more crude through the vulnerable Bab al-Mandab Strait. Separate strikes have hit Russia's diesel industry, according to Breitbart's reporting on the UPI wire. Crude itself has actually been falling, with Brent down to about $98 a barrel and WTI around $90 as of September 22, as Saudi Arabia moved to restart the damaged pipeline. Diesel prices staying elevated even as crude drops suggests refining and logistics bottlenecks, not export volume, are doing most of the damage. That's the strongest argument against a ban: it targets the wrong part of the supply chain.

Refiners Are Cashing In, Markets Are Nervous

Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have all seen quarterly earnings per share roughly quadruple year-over-year as diesel margins widened, according to Transport Topics' Bloomberg-sourced reporting. But growing Republican support for a ban spooked investors enough that Jefferies downgraded both Valero and Marathon from buy to hold on September 22.

The Political Bill Comes Due

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told the Daily Signal she expects beef prices to keep falling, pointing to fertilizer costs down 50-60% from what she called "Biden highs" and labor costs down 40%. But she acknowledged diesel is hammering farmers during harvest season, saying she's hearing from "hundreds of farmers" struggling with fuel costs that have far outpaced other input savings.

Trump has argued gas prices remain lower than under Biden and separately said fuel costs are "a very inexpensive price to pay" for the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, remarks Fox News reported drew heavy Democratic criticism. Polling cited by Fox News shows voters increasingly blame the current administration for cost-of-living pressures. A Fox News poll found Democrats favored by a wide margin on handling inflation heading into a midterm cycle where early voting is already underway in several states.

No decision on an export ban has been made public. Whether Trump acts before Election Day, and whether it would even lower prices given Wright's own doubts, remains unresolved.