Democrats Lead Final Marist Poll by 8 Points as Midterm Voting Ends Tuesday

Voters go to the polls tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 3, with Republicans trailing in the last major national survey and the president's approval near the low point of either of his terms.

The final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, released last week, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 52% to 44% among likely voters. Among registered voters the Democratic lead is 10 points, down from 12 last month. That change is within the margin of error, and Democrats have led in every Marist survey since last November.

Independents break for Democrats by 13 points. Seven in 10 Democrats (71%) say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents.

The numbers behind the lead

Likely voters say by 2 to 1 that their ballot is a vote against Donald Trump rather than for him, according to the poll.

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said Democrats are pulling in more Republican crossover than Republicans are pulling from Democrats. "So there's a net advantage just from some partisan crossover, not enormous," he said. Add the independent split, he said, and Democrats "should have a good night."

For comparison, Democrats led by 9 points among likely voters in Marist's October 2018 poll. They went on to pick up 40 House seats that November.

Newsweek's analysis puts Trump's approval average at about 37 percent. It ties the slide to the still-unresolved war with Iran, which spiked gasoline prices and added to voter anger over the cost of living. Newsweek says forecasters make Democrats heavy favorites for the House and narrower favorites for the Senate, while noting that polls have erred before.

Early votes and the Election Day Republican bet

More than 30 million ballots have already been cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. That includes more than 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person.

About 1 in 5 likely voters in the Marist survey say they have already voted. That group favors Democrats 68% to 31%. Voters who have not yet cast a ballot are split evenly at 48% each.

Republicans are counting on that second group. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats.

Voters themselves are less sure than the topline. In the same poll, 51% expect Democrats to win their local congressional race and 46% expect Republicans to.

Trump's final-week agenda

Trump has spent the closing days rallying in key states and safe Republican areas. He has also pushed the Senate on daylight saving time.

The House passed the Sunshine Protection Act in July, 307 to 117. It would let states observe daylight saving time year-round. Twenty-two Republicans and 95 Democrats voted no. The bill has stalled in the Senate, and Americans set their clocks back an hour on Sunday, Nov. 1.

"The United States Senate is letting the daylight saving bill die when a vast Majority of the Country want it," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "TAKE A VOTE!" He went as far as sharing the cellphone number of Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and urging supporters to call him.

Cotton, a close Trump ally, held his ground. "Congress has enacted permanent Daylight Saving Time multiple times before and repealed it each time once Americans experienced absurdly late sunrises in the winter," he said. "Arkansans don't want their kids going to school in the pitch dark, and I'll always put Arkansas first." House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., has also pressed the Senate to act, he told Fox News Digital in early October.

Justice Department moves drawing fire

An Inquirer politics newsletter lists several Justice Department actions in the final week. The newsletter's author argues they are aimed at shifting electoral outcomes.

In Minnesota, the department is pursuing a case over whether Rep. Ilhan Omar's father lied on a document when the family came to the U.S. in the 1990s. The newsletter says that case is a path to stripping her citizenship.

In Alaska, the department has filed a challenge to a Senate race that has not yet been decided. It argues that a loss by Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan would be invalid because another Alaskan named Dan Sullivan qualified for the ballot. The newsletter says that filing came reportedly on Trump's direct order.

In California, the department gave state and local officials a list of 20,000 registered voters. The newsletter says California officials and experts consider the department's claims about that list almost completely erroneous.

The Justice Department's own statements on these matters were not part of the newsletter's account. The newsletter is opinion writing, and its characterizations of motive are the author's. No court has ruled on the Alaska or Minnesota matters.

Iran after the vote

In the Guardian, columnist Simon Tisdall argues that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will resume strikes on Iran once the midterms are over. He writes that Trump reportedly turned down Netanyahu's pressure to hit Iran this month for fear of the electoral fallout. Tisdall calls the war illegal. That is his opinion, and neither the White House nor Israel is quoted accepting that description.

Separately, NORAD and U.S. Northern Command confirmed to WPTV in Palm Beach that a Humvee-mounted Avenger short-range air defense system spotted at the local airport is part of a new defense setup protecting ground troops and "critical assets" around Mar-a-Lago.

The open question for Tuesday is whether in-person Republican turnout can close an 8-point likely-voter gap, with Democratic-leaning voters already holding a banked early lead.