Final NYT/Siena Poll Has Democrats Ahead in All Seven Battleground Senate Races as Trump Ends Midterm Campaign

Since Trump's two-hour Dubuque rally on Sunday, Nov. 1, the last big batch of battleground polling has landed, and it points the same direction as the House forecasts: toward Democrats.

The final New York Times/Siena survey of 5,708 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, shows Democratic Senate candidates ahead in all seven states polled. Control of the chamber, now held by Republicans 53-47, runs through them.

The numbers state by state

Texas: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton leads GOP Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44% among 736 likely voters. The Times' September poll had them tied at 45% each. Kansas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Iowa: Democrat Josh Turek leads Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%. That is a one-point race, and polling there has flipped between the two for months.

Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.

Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44%.

Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 45%.

The Times found Trump's approval at 38% among likely voters across the seven states. The paper called that "strikingly low," noting Trump won five of the seven by double digits two years ago.

The poll ran through Nov. 1. Trump's Michigan appeal and the Haley Stevens endorsement of Rogers came right at the end of that window.

A defensive map

Trump's final stops tell the same story. He rallied in Florida, Iowa and Kansas, all states he carried in 2024, and held tele-rallies for candidates in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Salina, he said it was his 30th rally in 32 days. Euronews counts more than two dozen rallies in 19 states since the start of October.

In 2024, Republicans spent their energy flipping Biden states. This year the president is spending his final days shoring up his own.

In Salina he told the crowd, "I could have been home watching television, or some crappy thing; I'd rather be with you." He said he had come to make sure Marshall, whom he called "Roger," got elected. Euronews reported hundreds of attendees left before the roughly 90-minute speech ended.

Trump's pitch: no change of course

Trump's argument is that Republicans are heading for a strong night regardless of the polls. "We're going to elect 'America first' Republicans up and down the line," he said in Iowa. He told supporters that Democrats left the country in a "dark age" and that under his command "we quickly turned it into the golden age of America."

He also warned that Democrats in power would "open the border," "bankrupt your family," "take away your guns" and "mutilate your children." Video montages at the Florida and Iowa events showed Democrats criticizing ICE and backing transgender rights.

On the economy, the problem he is up against is prices. Fuel, groceries and health care have all risen since the war in Iran began more than eight months ago. In Iowa, Newsweek counted about 23 minutes of his two-hour speech on state issues and candidates. He also repeated his suggestions to rename the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait" and New Mexico "New America," and asked ranchers to provide more beef to bring down prices.

That is the exact kind of messaging that has some Republicans uneasy. The BBC reports disquiet among party members over Trump's pull with moderate voters.

What Democrats are saying

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said over the weekend he is "very confident" his party will win the House. Barack Obama and other senior Democrats made closing appeals as well.

Forecasts agree. A Harvard polling-and-history model gives Democrats a 96% chance at the House and 76% at the Senate. Republicans hold the House 219-214 right now.

What is at stake Tuesday

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. More than 54 million votes were already cast heading into the final weekend.

A Democratic House would control the federal budget process, be able to block legislation and gain subpoena power to investigate the administration. A Democratic Senate would also end unified Republican control of Congress for the last two years of Trump's term.

Polls have missed before, and a 1-point lead in Iowa settles nothing. The first real test of whether Texas, Kansas and Ohio are as close as the Times found comes when polls close Tuesday night, Nov. 3.