Delhi AQI Hits 369 on Diwali Eve, 16 Stations Already Severe, and Forecast Calls for Severe Air Nov. 8-9

Delhi reached Diwali eve on Saturday, Nov. 7, with a citywide AQI of 369, deep in the "very poor" band. Earlier this week the capital had slid steadily into worse air: the Times of India reported an AQI of 350 at 4 p.m. on Tuesday, and the New Indian Express reported 377 on Wednesday and 369 on Thursday.

Saturday's reading is a slight improvement on Friday's 382. It is still within reach of the 400 line that marks "severe."

Where the air stands

Of the 59 monitoring stations reporting Saturday, 16 were already in the "severe" category and 29 were "very poor." The worst reading was 452, near IIT Delhi. PM10 was the dominant pollutant citywide.

The Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi expects "severe" air on Nov. 8 and Nov. 9. For the six days after that, it expects readings to swing between "severe" and "very poor."

The forecasters point to weather. A ventilation index below 6,000 square metres per second and wind speeds under 10 kilometres per hour mean pollutants don't disperse.

The Times of India reported on Nov. 4 that at least eight areas had already slipped into severe air quality. Jahangirpuri hit 462, Punjabi Bagh 449 and DTU 445.

Pre-Diwali pollution worst since 2019

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) says Delhi had its worst pre-Diwali pollution spike since 2019. PM2.5 climbed steeply from Nov. 5, hitting 227 µg/m³. By 6 a.m. Friday it reached 300, then 309, then 323 µg/m³. The national 24-hour standard is 60.

Delhi was also the only one of five megacities CREA assessed whose October average exceeded that daily standard. Delhi averaged 69 µg/m³, against 46 in Mumbai, 45 in Kolkata and 29 each in Chennai and Bengaluru. Delhi had 21 October days over the limit. Mumbai had three and Kolkata four.

The stubble-burning numbers

Farm fires get much of the blame each year, but the data shows a swinging contribution. Hindustan Times, citing the government's Decision Support System, reported stubble burning rose to 18.57% of Delhi's pollution on a Sunday, up from 5.33% the day before.

CREA analyst Manoj Kumar said it reached 16% on Nov. 4. For comparison, he said it peaked near 22% in November 2025 and 38% in 2024. He expects it to "decline sharply after the second week of November."

On Saturday the system put it at just 1.7%, with a forecast of 5.4% on Sunday. Transport was the largest source Saturday at 21.4%.

Satellite data counted 589 residue-burning incidents across six states on Friday. Punjab had 357, Madhya Pradesh 139, Rajasthan 58, Uttar Pradesh 23, Haryana nine and Uttarakhand three. Since Sept. 15, 6,226 fires have been detected in those states through Nov. 6.

What the curbs can and can't reach

Tech Times reports that the Commission for Air Quality Management put GRAP Stage III into force across the National Capital Region on Friday, Nov. 6. That is the second-most-severe tier of Delhi's emergency framework, and it was invoked before the AQI crossed 400.

Tech Times also says two scientific models, from IITM and Cambridge, project PM2.5 near 45 times the World Health Organization limit by Monday morning. It adds that the measures target local sources such as construction, older vehicles and generators. They cannot touch crop burning in Punjab and Haryana or the atmospheric inversion forecast for the weekend.

Public health experts have made a broader version of the point. They say temporary construction, industrial and vehicle restrictions often fail to address root causes. Shweta Narayan of the Global Climate and Health Alliance said "poor air quality is our all-year-round problem in our country" and that firecrackers add to it.

Delhi's fine-particle pollution averaged about 19 times the WHO annual guideline last year. Monitors have hit their maximum displayable reading several times in recent years.

Hindustan Times reported that Delhi's winter pollution action plan, which came into effect on a Sunday, bars non-Delhi vehicles below BS-VI emission standards. It also bans all dust-generating demolition and outdoor civil construction, and mandates 50% attendance in offices or work from home. Hindustan Times described traffic snarls and a "frustrated" public when the rules kicked in.

Authorities have also temporarily lifted the firecracker ban for Diwali. Tech Times reports green crackers are permitted Sunday within strict time windows, with the full ban resuming Monday.

What comes next

Diwali begins Sunday, Nov. 8, and the early-warning system expects severe air that day and the next. If that holds, the figure to watch is the citywide average crossing 400 on Sunday or Monday. The test of whether the green-cracker windows are respected comes on Sunday night.

CREA expects the stubble-burning share to drop after the second week of November. Whether the broader readings follow depends on the winds, which are forecast to stay weak.