China's October Crude Imports Rise to 9.88 Million Barrels a Day, Highest Since March

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East supply, China has run its crude imports well below last year's pace. October is the first month to show a clear rebound.

China imported 41.94 million metric tons of crude in October, or 9.88 million barrels per day, according to customs data released Tuesday, Nov. 10. The daily rate was up 9.4% from September and the highest since March.

The rebound is partial. October volumes were still 13.3% below a year earlier. Through the first 10 months, imports total 399.9 million tons, down 15.1%.

Saudi barrels return

Ship-tracking firm Kpler put seaborne arrivals at about 9.2 million bpd in October, up 12% from September and also the highest since March. Kpler and Vortexa both recorded a surge in Saudi cargoes. Kpler counted 1.6 million bpd and Vortexa 2 million bpd. For comparison, China's customs data showed Saudi imports averaging 1.62 million bpd across all of 2025.

Kpler has said the buying was shaped by price and supply. It pointed to an early-August drop in Brent crude prices, when Chinese refiners were securing cargoes for October delivery. A recovery in exports through the Strait of Hormuz by producers including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also helped restore supply.

Kpler expects the seaborne rate to run slightly above October's level in November and December.

Are stockpiles being rebuilt?

The data disagrees on inventories. Energy Aspects estimated that China's crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels in October, based on its supply and demand balance. It put refinery throughput at 13.75 million bpd, down from September.

Kpler's and Vortexa's satellite-based onshore tank data showed draws of 7 million and 12 million barrels. Those are far smaller than the 47 million and 57 million barrel draws they recorded in September.

The gap matters because Beijing does not disclose stockpile releases or additions. Every outside figure is an inference from shipping data, satellite imagery or the arithmetic of supply versus refinery runs.

On the narrower question of direction, the sources agree. The drawdown slowed sharply in October. Kpler expects refiners may need to build product stocks even if exports come in lower than expected, which would keep refinery runs near current levels through year-end.

Product exports fall

China's exports of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil fell to 5.18 million tons in October from 7.16 million tons in September. They were still up 14.6% from a year earlier. For the first 10 months, product exports total 46.59 million tons, down 2%.

Energy Aspects said state-owned refiners held back from ramping up runs because of uncertainty over export policy.

Gas imports

Natural gas imports, pipeline and liquefied combined, rose 2.4% from a year earlier to 10.01 million tons in October. January-to-October gas imports total 99.22 million tons, down 2.8%.

Separately, Reuters reported that LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in October reached its highest level since the war began.

What comes next

President Trump said Tuesday that he expects the Iran war to end fairly soon and played down the prospect of new strikes.

The open question for China's refiners is whether Saudi and Emirati cargoes keep arriving at the October pace. Kpler's forecast of slightly higher seaborne arrivals in November and December points to continued supply.