Business Groups' Letter Against Diesel Export Ban Surfaces as Bipartisan Bills Sit in Congress

Since President Trump told reporters at the UN on Tuesday, September 22 that he'd pushed his staff to consider a diesel export ban, and the White House told Fox News Digital by Wednesday it was no longer on the table, the fight over the idea has continued in Congress and on Wall Street analyst desks.

The Letter Nobody Saw Coming

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable, National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and dozens of other groups sent Trump a joint letter on Wednesday, September 23, warning that an export ban would do the opposite of what he wanted, according to CNBC.

"You have been asked by some to ban or limit the export of diesel to help lower prices, when in fact the opposite would occur," the groups wrote, per CNBC's reporting. They argued the policy would mean "less fuel production, tighter supplies and rising costs for American families, farmers and truckers."

The letter landed the same week a Politico report, citing unnamed sources, said the administration was preparing a 90-day ban plan. That report knocked down diesel futures and refiner stocks, according to CNBC. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the New York Times separately that "nobody wants a full blanket ban or zero exports of diesel," adding: "that's not being discussed."

Analysts Can't Agree What a Ban Would Do

The strongest case for the ban camp is simple: diesel hit a record national average of $6.53 a gallon for the week of September 21, according to AAA data cited by Fox News, up from $3.75 a year earlier. Republican senators from farm states have pushed for action ahead of the midterms, and JPMorgan Chase analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote that a 30-day export halt combined with an existing Jones Act waiver "could work surprisingly well, at least initially," projecting retail diesel could fall to $4.70 a gallon within 15 days, according to Bloomberg.

Morgan Stanley reached a different conclusion, according to OilPrice.com. A diesel export ban would push U.S. gasoline prices higher, not lower, because refiners would cut overall output in response to the restriction.

RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Fox News Digital the damage wouldn't stop at the pump. "The price of diesel touches everything within the transportation services category of the American economy," he said. "That means there will be an increase in your grocery prices, because everything that gets delivered to the grocery store will get that much more expensive."

A Daily Signal opinion piece by EJ Antoni and Sarah Wagoner made a structural argument against the ban: the U.S. produces 5.3 million barrels of distillates a day but only consumes about 3.5 million domestically, and most Gulf Coast refining capacity sits far from Northeast and West Coast demand centers. Cutting off exports, they argued, would give foreign crude suppliers less incentive to keep selling oil to U.S. refineries in the first place.

The Legislation Nobody's Withdrawn

While the White House walked back its own interest, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) introduced two bills the week before Trump's UN remarks that remain pending in the House, according to the Epoch Times. H.R. 10423 would impose an export control ban on diesel through January. H.R. 10422 is a trigger-based version that would lift the ban only "when prices drop at or below $4.50 per gallon for 30 consecutive days," per Burchett's congressional website.

Neither bill has been withdrawn or scheduled for a vote as of this writing. The question remains whether House Republicans push forward on export restrictions Trump himself no longer backs, especially with diesel still nearly $2.80 above where it stood a year ago.

The Global Backdrop Isn't Going Away

The underlying price pressure predates any U.S. policy fight. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries forced Moscow, previously the world's second-largest diesel exporter, to impose its own export ban in July, according to the Epoch Times. The Iran war, which the U.S. joined alongside Israel in June 2025, has added to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Brown University's Iran War Energy Cost Tracker estimates Americans have absorbed more than $51 billion in excess diesel costs directly tied to that conflict, per the Epoch Times.

Philip Rossetti of the Lighthouse Energy Institute told the Epoch Times that between the refinery strikes and Hormuz disruptions, relief "may not ease anytime soon" regardless of what Washington does on exports.

Congress now faces the choice of letting Burchett's bills die quietly or forcing a floor vote that puts Republicans on record for or against a policy their own president dropped and their own party's business allies lobbied against in writing.