Brent Set for Steepest Weekly Fall Since 2020 as Trump Speaks With Qatar's Emir on Iran Deal

Since Tuesday's midterms, when Democrats won both houses of Congress, the Iran war has pulled in two directions at once: oil markets are pricing in peace while the White House is openly weighing escalation.

Brent crude futures for January were up 31 cents, or 0.3%, at $98.60 a barrel by 1129 GMT Friday, Nov. 6. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $91.00. Brent briefly dipped to $96 before recovering.

Per LSEG data, Brent is on track for a 16% weekly decline. That would be its steepest percentage fall since the start of the pandemic and its biggest in absolute terms in LSEG records going back to 1988. WTI is set for a 13% drop. Other trackers put Brent's weekly loss at more than 13%, depending on the measure.

Oil fell 8% on Wednesday alone, settling at two-month lows, before rebounding on a surge in tanker attacks.

Trump and Qatar's emir

Trump spoke with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani about Doha's mediation between Washington and Tehran. The call was aimed at a "comprehensive agreement to end the regional crisis," according to the Arab Weekly.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that Iran sent the U.S. a nuclear proposal through Qatar. According to that official, who spoke anonymously, Tehran says the proposal can be discussed only after Washington meets its seven demands. The official said the U.S. is reviewing it.

Gulf News reported that Qatar is seeking support for a draft deal that could restart talks within days, and that Vice President JD Vance is urging an agreement.

Trump keeps the strike option open

Speaking in the Oval Office late Thursday after meeting his national security team, Trump said he would soon decide whether to "go further" to ensure Iran's nuclear program can never be revived. He said he would rather not "destroy the rest of the country," but "maybe I'll have to," and that people would "know soon enough."

Trump said Iran could take 25 to 30 years to rebuild. He also acknowledged that 18 U.S. service members have died in the conflict.

Two U.S. officials told Axios it was the first Iran-focused meeting since the midterms. Trump has acknowledged the war was partly to blame for Republican losses. Vance said the war is "the reason we lost."

On Tuesday, Trump declined to rule out restarting combat operations after the vote. Iran, for its part, is planning a wider retaliation if fighting resumes.

Iran's terms

Tehran's public position has not moved. Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official, said Thursday during a visit to Russia: "As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations."

The demands include lifting U.S. sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets and war reparations. Iran also wants the U.S. naval blockade of its ports lifted.

Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told state broadcaster IRIB that Iran must "see practical US actions with its own eyes" before a new chapter opens. He said Iran has the right not to settle for "paper commitments."

Washington's stated position is the reverse. It insists nuclear issues be part of any initial negotiations.

What the market is and isn't pricing

UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis wrote Thursday that the collapse in the war risk premium reflects prospects for peace and a full reopening of Hormuz. He warned that those hopes collide with the reality that refilling depleted stockpiles will take time. By his estimate, the conflict has drained nearly 700 million barrels from global inventories.

Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said the crude market is loosening toward oversupply. Spot premiums for Middle Eastern benchmarks have returned to pre-conflict levels. He added that the market is still looking for evidence of a firm deal, and that backlash from either side "could tighten fundamentals once more."

Trading Economics data shows Gulf crude exports recovering to near pre-war levels, though transport costs remain elevated.

The shipping picture hasn't calmed. UKMTO data indicate attacks on oil-carrying vessels are running near record pace. At least five vessel incidents were reported in the Persian Gulf between Sunday and Thursday.

Matt Stanley of Kpler put it this way: "Oil doesn't have to be at $117 to be expensive, and a fall to $93 doesn't mean the underlying problems have disappeared."

What to watch

The weekly price collapse rests on two things that haven't happened: a signed deal and a reopened Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. wants nuclear terms first. Iran wants its seven demands met first. Trump has said a decision on further action is coming soon, and the new Democratic-controlled Congress has yet to be seated. Whether that decision is a strike order or a response to Iran's proposal is the question oil traders are watching.