Australia's Chris Bowen Chairs COP31 Negotiations From Monday as 503 Academics Demand an End to New Coal and Gas Approvals

Since the UN recently found that more than 1.5°C of global warming has become unavoidable, attention has turned to who will try to steer the talks that follow. The answer is Australia's Chris Bowen, and his own government's fossil fuel record is now part of the story.

COP31 opens Monday, Nov. 9, in the Turkish resort city of Antalya and runs two weeks. Turkey and Australia both bid to host. They settled on a split: Turkey holds the conference presidency, Australia holds the presidency of the negotiations themselves. Bowen's job is to find consensus among close to 200 countries.

A negotiator from a fuel-exporting country

Australia is the world's second-largest exporter of thermal coal and the largest exporter of coal for steelmaking. About one fifth of global LNG exports ship from its coast, roughly on par with Qatar and behind the United States.

The Australian government expects the three fuels to bring in A$141bn (about US$98bn) this financial year.

Bowen has to bridge producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, big emerging economies including China, the world's largest emitter, and poorer countries that see warming as an existential threat. The talks open against a Middle East conflict that has driven an oil price crisis and pushed up living costs worldwide.

Bowen told the Guardian on Thursday that he has three priorities: limiting overshoot past 1.5°C, getting poorer countries enough finance to cope with climate impacts, and a new electrification goal. That goal, backed by Turkey and Australia, would have 35% of the world's final energy use come from electricity by 2035. Ocean protection is likely to be another theme.

Asked whether a major fossil fuel producer can credibly lead, Bowen dismissed the concern. He said every country is dealing with the transition and that Australia's domestic move away from coal power has been recognised internationally.

The pressure at home

On Tuesday, Nov. 3, 503 Australian-based academics sent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a five-page open letter. Signatories include Lesley Hughes, a Climate Change Authority board member, Climate Analytics founder Bill Hare, and climate scientist David Karoly.

"We argue that Australia cannot credibly lead on climate abroad nor ensure national nor regional security while it expands coal and gas at home," the letter says.

They want a binding timetable to phase out coal, gas and oil. They want a ban on new and expanded fossil fuel projects, including in the Hunter Valley and the Beetaloo Basin, and an international agreement on transition deadlines.

Hughes, a lead author on two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, said: "No government can credibly claim to be serious about the climate catastrophe while actively contributing to the cause."

The timing is pointed. The federal government is weighing the Hunter Valley Operations north and south mine extensions. The NSW Independent Planning Commission approved them, but they still need federal environmental approval. Albanese is expected to attend the summit.

UN human rights investigators weigh in

Separately, two UN Special Rapporteurs have written to the Albanese government. They question its continued coal and gas approvals, fossil fuel subsidies and 2035 climate target. In their communication, they say Australia's laws appear "ill-equipped" to regulate emissions and fossil fuel production, consumption and subsidies in line with its legal obligations.

They asked how Canberra is moving away from coal and gas, whether its 2035 target is aligned with 1.5°C, and how approvals account for impacts on children, First Nations peoples and communities overseas.

The letter followed a complaint from nine young Australians, represented by the group Generation Justice. The government has replied with an outline of its existing climate policies. Generation Justice says the reply skips the central question of why new approvals continue, and does not commit to ending approvals or subsidies or to strengthening the 2035 target.

Generation Justice also points to an Australian High Court ruling requiring consideration of conditions to cut climate pollution from coal mined for export.

What is not on the table

The official COP31 agenda does not include countries drawing up detailed plans to transition away from fossil fuels. Climate experts see such plans as central to limiting the crisis, and Hare is among those who have pressed the point. Bowen's stated focus is on overshoot, finance and the electrification target instead.

That leaves a practical test. The 35% electrification target needs buy-in from petrostates and from China, and it avoids naming coal, gas or oil. The Hunter Valley decision, meanwhile, sits on Albanese's desk as he prepares to fly to Antalya. Delegates start work Monday, Nov. 9, and the federal approval on the mine extensions is still pending.