32 Days Out: Democrats Lead Generic Ballot by Double Digits as GOP Fights to Flip Four Senate Seats of Its Own

Election Day is 32 days away on November 3, and the national numbers have not moved in Republicans' favor. A YouGov/Economist poll of 1,003 likely voters taken September 25-28 put Trump's approval at -26 points, 62% disapproving to 36% approving. Democrats led the generic congressional ballot in that poll by 15 points, 53% to 38%, and held an 8.3-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average as of late September, close to the 8.6-point national margin Democrats posted in the 2018 wave.

The Senate math

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats to Democrats' 47, with 35 seats on the ballot. The Cook Political Report, in ratings dated October 1, lists seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas, according to The Guardian. North Carolina leans Democrat and Kansas leans Republican. Georgia, rated competitive at the start of the year, is now rated a likely Democratic win, The Guardian reported, citing Cook's shift as Trump's approval fell amid the Iran war and rising gas prices. Texas showing up on a competitive list at all is notable given its history as a GOP stronghold.

Republicans are still playing offense in four Democratic-held seats, according to Newsweek: Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, along with governor's races in Kansas, Oregon and Wisconsin. Newsweek frames these as realistic flip opportunities built on local dynamics and candidate quality in states that were narrowly decided in 2024.

CNN's reporting cuts against how far that offense is likely to go. Over the last five full-scale midterm wipeouts for a president's party, going back to Ronald Reagan in 1982 through Trump's own 2018 losses, the in-power party never flipped more than four House seats held by the opposition, and in 2006 Republicans flipped zero Democratic seats while losing the House under George W. Bush. The historical base rate for flipping opposition seats during a wave against your own party is close to zero, regardless of which specific seats look competitive on paper.

The House picture

Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 House majority. The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting three dozen Democratic-held seats, and CNN notes that redistricting in nine states could net the GOP roughly four seats on its own, independent of the national environment. Katie Couric's reporting highlights races to watch: Republican Mike Lawler against Democrat Cait Conley in New York's Hudson Valley, GOP freshman Gabe Evans against Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel in Colorado, and Republican Ryan Mackenzie against firefighter Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania's 7th District. Cook rates all three toss-ups.

Republicans peeling away from Trump

NPR reports a growing number of GOP candidates and officials are breaking from pieces of Trump's agenda, from calling for an end to the Iran war to criticizing his immigration enforcement. Utah Sen. John Curtis, who isn't up for reelection until 2030, sent a letter asking the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Donald Trump Jr. after ProPublica reported a Russian oligarch financed large portions of a party celebrating his wedding. No investigation has been announced by the committee, and the ProPublica report's allegations are unproven. GOP strategist Sarah Longwell, a longtime Trump critic, told NPR that lawmakers may feel freer to break with Trump because his grip on the party looks less secure than it once did. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 45% of registered voters, and a majority of independents, see their vote this fall as a vote against Trump.

The state-level stakes

Beyond Congress, 46 states are electing more than 6,100 state legislators this November, about 83% of all seats nationally, according to the Associated Press via PBS Wisconsin. Republicans currently hold 23 state government trifectas to Democrats' 16, with 11 states split, according to multistate.us. A Democratic wave could add six new trifectas in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, pushing their total to 22, the first time that high since 2010. A Republican wave could add four, in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin, bringing the GOP to 27. Nine governor's races are rated competitive, including Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas, states that also appear on the Senate and trifecta battlegrounds.

The open question is whether the national environment, an 8-point-plus Democratic lead and a historically unpopular president, overrides the local factors Republicans are counting on in Georgia, Michigan and the handful of House toss-ups. Cook's ratings will keep shifting between now and November 3, and gas prices, still averaging above $4.39 a gallon in late September, remain the affordability flashpoint both parties are running on.