152 Polymarket Wallets Won $8 Million Betting on Military Events, Research Group Finds

A 97.2% win rate on long-shot bets isn't typical. It suggests advance information.

That's the uncomfortable number at the center of new research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit watchdog group. ACDC identified 152 Polymarket wallets that placed unusually successful bets on military and defense outcomes, collectively winning about $8 million, according to Reuters. The research was published Thursday, August 20.

ACDC analyzed every settled Polymarket market through May 5, looking for what it calls "long-shot" bets: at least $2,500 wagered within an hour on an outcome priced at 35% odds or lower. That search turned up 556 wallets ACDC nicknamed "Orcas," because like the whale, they show up, strike with precision, and disappear. Open an account, place one highly confident bet in a niche market, cash out, gone.

Of those 556 Orcas, 152 bet specifically on military and defense markets. Their average win rate: 97.2%. Their combined take: roughly $8 million.

ACDC is careful to say this isn't proof. "Orca traits may have other explanations, including pure luck," the group acknowledged, according to Reuters. Blockchain data shows the trades but not who's behind the wallet or where their information came from. That's the core limitation of this kind of research, and it's a fair one to flag before drawing conclusions.

But the pattern lines up with something ACDC found in earlier research, too. According to the International Business Times, citing Cryptobriefing, military and defense long-shot bets on Polymarket won 52% of the time overall, far above the platform's typical hit rate. That's a structural anomaly, not a one-off.

The Van Dyke Case Is the Warning Shot

This research doesn't exist in a vacuum. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information to bet on the January ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to the International Business Times. Prosecutors say he made $400,000. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty, according to Reuters and HuffPost.

Notably, Van Dyke isn't one of the 152 "Orca" wallets ACDC flagged. He built his position more slowly, according to Reuters, which is exactly why ACDC's method may be undercounting the problem. If a real insider trades patiently instead of striking fast, the Orca model misses him entirely. That's a limitation of the detection method, not proof the underlying activity is rare.

Copycats and Bots Make It Worse

The bigger risk here isn't just that someone with military knowledge might profit. It's that other traders are watching and copying.

ACDC found that before the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an early Orca-style bet on U.S. military action was quickly followed by a $200,000 wager from an automated trading bot and a $100,000 bet from a large trader, according to Reuters. Similar copycat patterns showed up before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran.

Copycat trading itself isn't illegal. But ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi warned that this activity is far more visible than most traders realize, according to the International Business Times, and that if bots and whales can spot and follow these signals, foreign intelligence services can too. A public blockchain means every bet is out there for anyone who knows how to look, even though the trader's identity stays hidden.

The national security exposure runs deeper than individual profit. A public market can accidentally telegraph U.S. military plans to anyone paying attention, including adversaries.

What Polymarket Says, and What Reforms Are on the Table

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters. The company has previously said it maintains strict controls, actively monitors for suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the Van Dyke case. Polymarket, founded in 2020, runs its international platform on a public blockchain.

ACDC is pushing for concrete reforms: mandatory identity verification for traders, the ability to withhold payouts on suspicious bets pending investigation, and outright bans on markets where non-public information would be highly actionable, according to Ground News's aggregation of the coverage.

Those are reasonable asks. Prediction markets have genuine value, they aggregate information and can outperform pundits and polls. But a market that rewards people for having classified access, and then broadcasts that edge to bots and foreign watchers in real time, isn't functioning as an information tool. It's functioning as a leak detector with a profit motive attached.

The Department of Defense declined to comment on intelligence-related matters or on ACDC's findings, according to Reuters. No new charges beyond the Van Dyke case have been announced. Whether Congress moves on identity-verification rules for prediction markets, or whether this becomes another example of financial innovation outrunning regulation, is still an open question.