New Military Strikes, New Diplomatic Moves — Same Unresolved War

While markets threw a party Monday over Iran deal optimism, the situation on the ground got messier.

According to ZeroHedge, citing IRGC-affiliated channels, US and Israeli fighter jets struck two boats at Iran's Port of Bandar Abbas, killing four people. Reports also described explosions near Bandar Abbas airport's runway. The strikes have NOT been officially confirmed by Washington or Jerusalem — but they happened as diplomats were actively talking. The timing suggests either leverage-building or negotiations shakier than Trump's public statements indicate.

Iran's own Foreign Ministry tried to pump the brakes on the euphoria. Per their statement: "It is true that a consensus was reached on many of the topics discussed, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent." That's the Iranian government itself telling the world to slow down.

Mainstream outlets — CNBC, The Hill, Bloomberg — led with the optimism. Almost none gave equal weight to the Bandar Abbas strikes or the Iranian Foreign Ministry's explicit caution.

Iran's Internet Coming Back Online — the Real Signal

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the restoration of international internet access after a 90-day nationwide blackout, according to Reuters as cited by ZeroHedge.

Governments don't restore civilian internet access — a tool of internal information control — unless something substantive has shifted. It's the strongest concrete indicator yet that Tehran is moving toward a settlement, not just talking about one.

Trump's Abraham Accords Gambit: Ambitious or Overreach?

Trump didn't just push for an Iran ceasefire Monday. He went much bigger — and much more controversial.

In a Truth Social post, Trump declared it "mandatory" that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan immediately sign the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel. He went further: if Iran signs a peace deal, Trump said it would be "an Honor" to have Iran join the coalition too.

Pakistan said no. Immediately and flatly. A Pakistani source familiar with the matter told CNBC: "Pakistan is under no compulsion to adhere to any such demand" and added that the Iran deal and Abraham Accords are "not interlinked and cannot be made so."

Saudi Arabia's position hasn't changed either. The kingdom has consistently said it won't normalize with Israel without a credible path to Palestinian statehood. That position didn't evaporate because Trump made a phone call Saturday.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office did not respond to press requests about Trump's post, according to CNBC.

Trump's instinct here is strategically coherent — use an Iran deal as the anchor for a broader regional realignment. The Abraham Accords genuinely have delivered economic benefits to their signatories. But calling it "mandatory" for sovereign nations and threatening to exclude them from the deal if they don't comply tends to harden resistance, not soften it.

Iran's Top Negotiators in Doha — The Actual Diplomacy

While Trump was posting, the real work was happening in Qatar. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi, parliament speaker Ghalibaf, and the central bank governor all traveled to Doha for active negotiations, according to ZeroHedge. Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani met with Iran's chief negotiator Monday, Reuters reported.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday the US and Iran were nearing an agreement but that "final approval from both sides could still take several days." Trump himself said he told his representatives "not to rush into a deal" — while simultaneously claiming talks are "proceeding nicely."

Those two statements don't align. Either you're close to a deal or you're not rushing.

Markets Are Pricing in a Deal That Hasn't Been Signed

Brent crude closed at $96.14 per barrel, down 7%, according to CNBC. WTI fell more than 6% to $90.30. The S&P 500 futures jumped 0.9% and Nasdaq futures climbed 1.3%, both hitting record territory, according to ZeroHedge. Japan's Nikkei 225 broke 65,000 for the first time ever. Europe's Stoxx 600 hit its highest level since March 2, per CNBC.

Oil prices have swung more than 30% since the war began on February 28. Every time Trump signals optimism, crude tanks. Every time talks stall, it surges back. Traders are essentially gambling on Trump's mood.

ZeroHedge's headline called it the "endless Iran Deal drumbeat." This is at least the third time in three months markets have priced in an imminent deal that didn't materialize on schedule.

What This Means for Regular People

Gas prices remain elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is partially blockaded. About 20% of global oil supply can't move freely through that chokepoint, according to CNBC.

India is already feeling it — Bloomberg flagged that the Iran war has squeezed India's gas power supply as demand hits record levels. That's a preview of what prolonged disruption does to developing economies, and by extension to global inflation.

A deal would lower oil prices, energy costs, shipping costs, and prices on basically everything. A deal that hasn't been signed is worth exactly nothing.

Four people are dead in Bandar Abbas. Iran's Foreign Ministry says nothing is imminent. Pakistan just publicly rejected Trump's demands. The internet is back on in Tehran, which is encouraging.

Call it when the ink is dry.