U.S. and Iranian Negotiators Reach 60-Day Ceasefire Deal

Axios broke the headline Thursday: U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and kick off formal nuclear negotiations. The catch — Trump hasn't approved it yet.

This is a signed negotiator-level agreement sitting on the President's desk waiting for a signature or a veto. Nobody knows which way Trump goes.

Markets React, Then Reconsider

Markets didn't wait for Trump. According to Bloomberg, Treasuries rose and gold erased earlier losses on the deal report. According to CNBC, Brent crude pulled back from its morning spike, settling around $94.64 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $89.26 as of 10:23 a.m. ET Thursday.

Oil had surged earlier Thursday after Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it targeted a U.S. air base at approximately 4:50 a.m. local time, per Iran's state Tasnim news agency. The Guard didn't name the base.

Within hours Thursday: Iran fired at a U.S. base, the U.S. conducted fresh strikes on an Iranian military site, and negotiators simultaneously finalized a ceasefire extension.

What's in the MOU

According to CNN, the framework calls for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day process to tackle Iran's nuclear stockpile and frozen assets. Those are the U.S.-described terms.

Iran's state television told a different version Wednesday — claiming the draft required full U.S. military withdrawal from the vicinity of Iran. The White House called that a "complete fabrication." Trump himself stated flatly that no nation will control shipping through the strait.

Both sides are publicly claiming the same document says different things.

Kuwait Struck by Ballistic Missile

At 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27, Iran launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait, according to U.S. Central Command. Kuwaiti forces intercepted it. CENTCOM called it an "egregious ceasefire violation."

This came hours after Iranian forces launched five one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz — all intercepted by U.S. forces. CENTCOM also said U.S. forces prevented a sixth drone launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bandar Abbas.

Kuwait is not a party to this conflict.

Treasury Sanctions Iran's Toll Authority

The U.S. Treasury Department, under Secretary Scott Bessent, sanctioned Iran's newly created "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" — the agency Tehran set up to collect transit fees from ships passing through Hormuz. Bessent called it "a joke" in a post on X Thursday, warning any corporate or state entity against paying tolls or disguising them as aid payments.

This sanction action is branded "Operation Economic Fury" — the administration's stated replacement for the military campaign called "Operation Epic Fury." The shift from military action to sanctions is deliberate.

Trump's Political Calculus

During a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Trump was unusually direct. Per CNBC, he said Iran "thought they were going to outwait me" ahead of the midterm elections, adding: "I don't care about the midterms."

Trump is signaling he won't rush a bad deal to score a political win before November.

Oil Markets Remain Skeptical

Most outlets are framing this as binary — deal or no deal, war or peace. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, told CNN that "Nothing has fundamentally changed. The strait remains closed." Johnston said Iran has zero incentive to reopen Hormuz quickly because the moment they do, they lose their primary leverage.

Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group, offered a blunt assessment: "I'm skeptical. I'll believe it when I see it."

CNN also noted that Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC — the Abu Dhabi national oil company — is among the Gulf skeptics. These are the people who actually move oil.

The war with Iran has burned through U.S. missile stockpiles at a pace that will take years to replenish, according to AP News. Replenishing weapons while China watches carries strategic weight.

Iran Backs Oman After Trump's Warning

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei formally voiced support for Oman on Thursday — after Trump warned Oman to "behave" or face consequences, per The Hill. Iran is actively trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Oman, which has served as the key back-channel for these negotiations.

The Status Quo

A 60-day deal is on the table. Iran continues firing missiles — at Kuwait, not just at U.S. forces. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Gas prices are still threatening $5 a gallon this summer according to analysts. And the single most important variable — whether Trump signs the MOU — is still unknown.

Negotiators shook hands. The war didn't notice.