The Clock Is Ticking

July 1, 2026. That's the date the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) hits its mandatory joint review — the first in the deal's six-year history. According to CBC News, formal notification of requested changes was due by June 1, one month before the review. That deadline is essentially here.

Canada and the U.S. haven't even started formal negotiations yet.

One Meeting in Seven Months

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc has held exactly one day of in-person talks with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer over the past seven months, according to CBC News. One day. On a deal covering $1.3 trillion in annual goods and services trade.

LeBlanc is now reportedly planning a trip to Washington — but his own spokespeople haven't confirmed a date. The pace stands in sharp contrast to Mexico's approach. The BBC reported that Greer met Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on a Monday in late April, with two more rounds of U.S.-Mexico meetings scheduled in the coming weeks. Canada is behind.

Greer's Warning

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer isn't sugarcoating it. He told Congress directly that Canada is "doubling down on globalisation when we're trying to correct for the problems of globalisation," according to the BBC. He told a Washington audience on May 27 that Canada is "in a different space" from where the U.S. needs it to be, according to CBC News.

The top U.S. trade official is saying, on the record, that the two countries are fundamentally misaligned. This goes beyond minor disagreements over tariff schedules — it signals a philosophical gap on trade policy itself.

Carney Draws a Line

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is not backing down publicly. "It's not a case where there is someone making demands, and a supplicant," he told reporters, according to the BBC. He added that Ottawa will NOT let the U.S. "dictate the terms" of free trade negotiations and that reaching a deal "will take some time."

At the same time, Carney acknowledged Canada's economy is showing weakness. He told reporters the GDP softness reflects deliberate "policy shifts to rebuild the economy" in response to U.S. tariffs, according to the WSJ.

Canada did make at least one real concession: it dropped a planned digital services tax targeting large U.S. tech companies, according to the BBC. But it also hasn't unlocked any breakthroughs.

Canada's Leverage Is Real — Trump Is Wrong to Dismiss It

Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. doesn't need anything from Canada. U.S. industries have told his own administration otherwise, according to CBC News.

Here are the actual numbers. In 2024, roughly 76 percent of Canada's exported goods went to the U.S. — so yes, Canada is heavily exposed. But the U.S. exported $350 billion in goods and $90 billion in services to Canada in the same year, per figures from the U.S. Trade Representative cited by CBC News. That's a market of 40 million affluent consumers right on America's border.

Canada also brings critical leverage in crude oil, critical minerals, and foreign direct investment through its pension funds, according to CBC News analysis. The U.S. energy sector, auto industry, and defense supply chain are deeply integrated with Canada.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets like the BBC are framing this primarily through Carney's defiant posture — the "we won't be a supplicant" angle plays well for Canadian domestic politics. But it obscures the fact that Canada is the side that hasn't secured a single formal negotiating round yet.

Center-right coverage from the WSJ is giving too much weight to the "positive meeting" spin from Canadian officials. One productive conversation in Washington does not amount to moving talks forward when the deadline is weeks away and formal rounds haven't started.

CUSMA — the deal that replaced NAFTA and currently shields a massive chunk of Canadian exports from Trump's tariffs — could expire or be fundamentally renegotiated in a matter of weeks. The two countries most affected by that outcome have spent seven months mostly not talking to each other.

What This Means for Regular People

If CUSMA collapses or gets renegotiated on unfavorable terms, American consumers pay more for Canadian lumber, energy, and auto parts. Canadian workers in export industries — steel, aluminum, autos, agriculture — face significant economic disruption. Cross-border supply chains that took decades to build could be upended.

Both governments have incentives to reach a deal. Both governments are also playing to their domestic audiences right now instead of negotiating. July 1 isn't a cliff, as Canada's chief negotiator told CBC News — but the deadline carries real consequences.

Seven months of limited progress means negotiations need to accelerate. Fast.