TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record NT$1.49 Trillion, Up About 51% and Above Its Own Guidance

TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion (about $16.03 billion) on Thursday. That is up 54.6% from the same month last year and down 0.6% from August.

The monthly figures put third-quarter revenue at about NT$1.49 trillion, or roughly $46.7 billion. That is a record quarter, up about 51% from NT$989.92 billion a year earlier and about 17.6% from the second quarter.

A beat on guidance

In July, TSMC guided third-quarter revenue to between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion. The company gives guidance only in U.S. dollars. The actual number lands above the top of that range by roughly $900 million.

Analysts had been expecting less. An LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 19 analysts predicted NT$1.46 trillion.

One correction to the loose headlines: September was NOT a record month. August was, at NT$514.81 billion, the first month TSMC topped NT$500 billion. September is the second-highest month on record and the second straight above that mark.

The quarterly total is calculated from the monthly data. TSMC's formal third-quarter results come next week.

AI and capacity constraints drive revenue

High-performance computing, the category that covers the processors and accelerators in data centers, now accounts for 66% of TSMC's revenue. Chips at 7nm and smaller make up 77% of wafer revenue.

Capacity is tight. TSMC's 5/4nm and 3nm capacity is fully booked, and its 2nm technology is in a commercial ramp. Nvidia and Apple are among the customers.

The nine-month tally tells the same story. Revenue for January through September reached NT$3.899 trillion, up 41.1% from a year ago. TSMC has raised its full-year growth forecast to slightly above 40% in U.S. dollar terms.

The rest of the industry is moving the same direction. Samsung Electronics said Thursday that its third-quarter operating profit would top 100 trillion won, a first for a technology company. Samsung attributed a nearly ninefold jump in earnings to booming AI-driven memory sales.

The money going back in

TSMC has raised its 2026 capital spending plan to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion to expand production capacity. In September it also committed to using ASML's High NA extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, joining Samsung in adopting the technology.

That spending is the flip side of the revenue story. Crypto Briefing's analysis of the figures notes that TSMC is more exposed than ever to the spending plans of a relatively small group of AI buyers. It adds that committing $60 billion to $64 billion in a single year raises the stakes if demand cools before the new capacity starts generating returns.

For now, the numbers cut the other way. TSMC posted a 60.3% operating margin in the second quarter, when revenue was $40.20 billion, up 33.7% from a year earlier.

The market's reaction so far

TSMC's Taipei-listed shares closed down 1.35% on Thursday, before the revenue data came out. The broader Taiwan market fell 1%. The stock is up 64.52% so far this year, in line with the broader market, and the company's market capitalization stands at about $2.1 trillion, making it Asia's most valuable listed company.

The monthly release was brief. TSMC gave no forward guidance and no profit figures with it.

What comes next

TSMC reports full third-quarter earnings on Thursday, October 15. LSEG's SmartEstimate expects net profit of NT$740.8 billion, up 64% from a year earlier.

The call will also update TSMC's outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year. Capital spending plans and a potential Texas fab project are among the topics the market is watching. The central question is whether TSMC's spending guidance rises along with its revenue.