Trump Says Iran War Ends 'One Way or the Other' as Talks Stall Over Hormuz and Nuclear Terms

President Donald Trump told a Syracuse, New York, rally on Friday, Oct. 9, that the war with Iran will be over fast, "one way or the other."

"Iran will be very quick one way or the other: that they give us everything or they don't exist any longer," he said. He added that he was "about to settle or win two more" wars, Iran and Russia-Ukraine.

The line came in the middle of a long complaint about the Nobel Peace Prize, which went Friday to South African jurist and former UN human rights chief Navi Pillay. The Norwegian Nobel Committee cited her "efforts to promote peace and international law."

Trump called the decision "an indelible stain" on Norway and said, "We will not forget, Norway, that you didn't give this prize." He called Pillay a "mystery person" he had never heard of.

Talks run through Qatar, with no direct contact

Behind the rhetoric, the diplomacy is indirect and stuck. Qatari officials have been shuttling between the two sides, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met the intermediaries in New York earlier this week.

That followed Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. In return, Tehran wanted the U.S. naval blockade lifted and economic pressure eased.

U.S. officials described the latest exchanges as "positive and constructive." They said Trump was prepared to offer sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete progress on the nuclear issue.

Trump then denied it outright: "I offered them NOTHING!"

The sticking points

The two sides disagree on who moves first. A Trump administration official told Politico that Tehran appears to want extensive concessions upfront while asking Washington to trust it to deliver later. "That's crazy. How can we trust them?" the official said.

The official also said Washington objects to provisions that could leave Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz and able to profit from it, after months of Iranian attacks and efforts to restrict commercial shipping. The previous memorandum of understanding between the two countries collapsed this summer, which is why Washington wants assurances this time.

The nuclear question is the harder gap. U.S. officials said Iran had signaled flexibility. An informed Iranian official told state-run Press TV that those reports were "false." ABC News separately reported that Iran had not indicated any willingness to bring the nuclear issue into the talks.

Tehran's proposal centers on reopening Hormuz in exchange for relief from the blockade and sanctions plus access to frozen assets. Washington wants nuclear concessions as part of any broader settlement.

Win "very soon," strikes "possible"

Speaking at the PGA Tour Presidents Cup on Sunday, Trump said the U.S. will win the war "very soon" and that oil prices will then fall "way down to what it was before the war." He said the key is that "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."

Asked about Operation Economic Outcast, he said the U.S. is winning both militarily and economically. "We've already won it really from a military standpoint," he said, adding, "That doesn't mean we've stopped that."

He put Iranian inflation at "close to 300%," saying he had heard 318%. That figure is Trump's own and unverified here.

Asked whether more military strikes before the midterm elections were possible, he declined to rule them out: "It's possible, but I just don't want to say that."

The market has not matched the optimism. After Trump rejected the Iranian proposal, Brent crude futures rose $1.82, or 1.74%, to $106.14 a barrel in early Asian trading earlier this week. West Texas Intermediate gained $1.14 to $93.55.

The economic campaign has run longer than promised

The Washington Post reported that the administration is now preparing for a long economic war with Iran after earlier pledges of swift results. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said all Iranian airlines would be grounded worldwide by the end of September and that Iran would run out of oil to sell by the end of this week.

Trump's claim that Iran has "no economy" and his claim that the war is already militarily won sit alongside his refusal to rule out more strikes. Iran is still negotiating over the Strait.

Other claims in the Syracuse speech

Trump also said he "stopped Iran from having a nuclear weapon." The Guardian noted that U.S. intelligence agencies told Congress in 2025 that Iran had suspended its pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003. Trump said he has "settled eight wars."

He also separately said on Sunday that details would come "very soon" on five men arrested early that day near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England. They were arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act and of offenses under Britain's Explosives Act. The base has been a hub for U.S. bomber operations in the Iran war. "We caught them," Trump said.

What happens next

No direct U.S.-Iranian talks are under way, and the mediators carry the messages. The open question is sequencing: whether Tehran will accept nuclear terms before getting blockade and sanctions relief, or Washington will give relief first. Neither has moved publicly, and Trump's own denial of any offer leaves the U.S. position as contradicted by its own officials.