Trump Predicts Big Midterm Wins as Polling Splits and August Jobs Report Muddies the Economic Picture

Since a Harvard-Harris poll released last week showed nearly a third of Republicans worried Trump is hurting their own midterm chances, the president has gone on offense. On Labor Day, Trump posted a message on Truth Social predicting Republicans will "win the Midterms, BIG, and SAVE AMERICA," while calling Democrats "Radical Left Lunatics, Communists, and Dumocrats."

"These Deranged People, after fighting for 10 years, should finally acknowledge that your Favorite President (ME!), knows how to WIN!" Trump wrote, according to posts reported by both Breitbart and The Hill.

The Polling Picture Is Genuinely Split

Trump's confidence has some numbers behind it. A Harvard-Harris poll conducted August 28-30 found 51% of likely voters said they're more likely to back a Republican candidate, versus 49% for a Democrat, a 2-point GOP edge on the generic congressional ballot, as reported by Breitbart.

That result diverges from the broader trend. Breitbart itself noted the Harvard-Harris finding diverges from broader polling trends showing Democrats with an edge in the generic Congressional ballot. The Hill, meanwhile, reported Trump's overall approval rating was at 39.4% as of Monday afternoon, with disapproval at 57.1%, per a Decision Desk HQ polling average.

Both numbers are real. They're measuring different things: one is a head-to-head ballot test, the other is a personal approval rating. Voters can dislike a president while still leaning toward his party on a specific ballot question. Neither poll should be waved away to fit a narrative.

Jobs Report Cuts Two Ways

Republicans spent Labor Day touting August's jobs numbers. The White House said 162,000 jobs were added in August, which USA Today described as a stronger-than-expected report, according to a summary aggregated by Ground News.

But the headline number sits alongside a rougher story in manufacturing specifically. A syndicated commentary by Robert Forrant, a labor studies professor at UMass Lowell, published across multiple outlets including Fortune, the Indiana Capital Chronicle, Nevada Current, Honolulu Civil Beat, and Maine Morning Star, points out the U.S. economy has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2025, a 0.6% decline, using Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Forrant is careful to note manufacturing employment has been declining since the 1980s, so "Trump's policies are not solely to blame." Trump ran in 2024 promising to bring manufacturing jobs back, and by his own administration's numbers, that hasn't happened yet.

The strongest pro-tariff argument in the sourcing comes from economist Laura Veldkamp, who told reporters in July that Trump's tariffs "made it more profitable for American manufacturers to set up and produce here." The data doesn't yet show whether that translates to hiring numbers by November.

Forrant's piece also notes roughly 400,000 federal jobs have been cut during Trump's second term, many previously represented by unions, a disruption that predates and is separate from the manufacturing sector numbers.

Why Union Voters Matter in November

Union membership has fallen from 20.1% of U.S. workers in 1983 to 10.0%, or 14.7 million people, in 2025, per BLS figures cited by Forrant. Public sector union membership (32.9%) is more than five times private sector membership (5.9%).

That 10% national average matters disproportionately in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, three states with above-average union membership that are expected to be closely contested in House and Senate races. Forrant writes that recent polling indicates Trump's support among union households is eroding, though the underlying poll numbers weren't specified in the sourcing.

A majority of union members have traditionally voted Democratic, though that margin has narrowed since the 1970s and again in 2024. Whether that erosion continues or reverses by November remains to be seen.

Looking Ahead

Republicans are set to hold their first-ever midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas this week, with Trump scheduled to speak both nights, according to The Hill. Trump has told GOP lawmakers he plans to personally campaign in 35 competitive House and Senate races.

The Trump-aligned MAGA Inc super PAC has already committed $10 million to the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, per Breitbart, an early signal of where the party sees vulnerability even in a red state.

The next major data points will be whether other pollsters' generic-ballot numbers move toward the Harvard-Harris result or diverge further, and whether September's jobs report shows manufacturing stabilizing or continuing its decline.