Collins Says U.S. Will Exempt Some Canadian Imports From Tariffs, 11 Days Before Maine Senate Vote

Maine voters have been casting ballots for days, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Today, Oct. 23, Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced that the Trump administration will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports.

In a statement, Collins said the exemptions would apply to certain paper, plastics, machinery and some food products. She said the change would help the state's rural and coastal economy.

The news came from Collins, not from the White House. The Wall Street Journal reported in an exclusive that Trump is expected to remove some tariffs on Canada, and framed the move as a bid to help Collins and other Republicans in the midterms. The paper's report described the tariffs being removed as 50% levies on some Canadian products.

The administration has not yet spelled out which products are covered or when the exemptions take effect.

A race the polls cannot separate

Collins is seeking a sixth term. She is the only Republican senator on the ballot this year in a state Trump lost in 2024.

A Fox News poll released Thursday put Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson tied at 49% among likely voters. The survey of 1,514 likely voters ran Oct. 16-20, after the candidates' Oct. 15 debate, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.

Jackson is a former president of the Maine Senate. He became the Democratic nominee in July after Graham Platner withdrew, the Bangor Daily News reported.

The poll's internals cut both ways. Trump's approval among Maine likely voters stood at 37%, with 62% disapproving. Some 53% said they were concerned Collins votes with Trump too much. Another 46% said they were concerned Jackson is too liberal.

Collins led independents by 13 points. Jackson led by 40 points among the roughly one in five voters who had already voted. Voters planning to vote on Election Day favored Collins by 12.

Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, the Democratic firm that co-conducts the poll, said Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage. Republican pollster Daron Shaw said Republicans appear to be struggling with white rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception.

Other October polls the Bangor Daily News tallied showed Jackson ahead by 2 points in surveys from InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University and Rasmussen Reports. Marist and the Washington Post had him up 4. Collins' last lead came in a co/efficient poll at the end of September.

Why Canada matters in Maine

Maine sends more than 40% of its exports to Canada, according to CNBC's reporting. Both Collins and Jackson have criticized the tariffs on Canadian goods, and they disagree over who can do more about them.

That shared position complicates the politics of the announcement. Collins' framing is that the exemptions deliver relief to Maine industries. The WSJ's framing is that they are an electoral gesture. The two are not mutually exclusive, and the facts on hand do not settle motive. No source has put on the record who inside the administration decided the timing.

On the ground, Collins' standing owes a lot to personal ties. Fox News columnist David Marcus, reporting from Bangor, quoted retiree Philip saying it "would be stupid, in my opinion, not to vote for Susan," citing her role as Appropriations Committee chairman and the money she has steered to the state: "we've got new fire stations in every little town you can think of." Firefighter Hank told Marcus, "I'll believe she loses when I see it."

Jackson's supporters are motivated by other issues. One voter, Jeff, told Marcus his top concern is immigration enforcement, saying Portland police "should be able to handle things without having immigration backing them up."

The wider trade fight is unchanged

The exemptions do not signal a deal. Three sources told CBC News that Canadian officials have been telling industry groups there is no expectation of an agreement before Nov. 3. The sources said there is no substantial engagement at this time, though officials from both countries remain in contact.

Brian Clow, a former deputy chief of staff to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, told CBC there had been optimism about a deal before the midterms, "but that window appears to be entirely closed."

CBC also reported that Trump's Jan. 1 auto tariff threat still looms over the stalemate. The sources said the White House is focused on the campaign, and Trump has been holding rallies as Republicans face an uphill fight to hold the House and possibly the Senate.

Two things are still open. The administration has yet to publish the full list of exempted goods and an effective date. And the exemptions must reach Maine producers before the Nov. 3 vote to matter to the voters who will decide a race currently tied in the best-known public poll.