The Atlantic: Egypt's Spy Chief Warned Israel of Hamas Buildup 11 Days Before Oct. 7, Netanyahu's Office Denied It

Three years to the day before this anniversary, on September 26, 2023, Egypt's intelligence chief Abbas Kamel flew into Israel on a secret mission and warned that Hamas was preparing for a major escalation. Eleven days later, Hamas launched the October 7 attack. According to an investigation by The Atlantic's Vivian Salama, published this week and citing Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, U.S. and European officials briefed on the visit, that warning went largely nowhere inside the Israeli government.

The details are specific. A chartered Cessna linked to Egypt's General Intelligence Service landed at Ben Gurion Airport and taxied to an isolated section of the field used for sensitive diplomatic missions, according to The Atlantic, Ynet News and the Jerusalem Post. The Israel Airports Authority's flight logs and independent flight-tracking services confirm the aircraft was on the ground for 67 minutes before returning to Cairo, the Jerusalem Post reported.

The timing is what makes it strange. Kamel's plane touched down roughly two hours before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the stage in Jerusalem to mark the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, an event Netanyahu used to warn against the dangers of missed intelligence and complacency. "We do not underestimate any threat," he told the crowd, according to Political Wire's reporting of The Atlantic's account.

According to officials briefed afterward, Kamel told Israeli counterparts that Hamas, which controlled Gaza, appeared to be mobilizing for a significant attack, and he urged Israel to offer economic concessions to Gaza to defuse the situation. One former Israeli official summarized the message to The Atlantic: "If you don't change course, Gaza is going to blow up in your faces." The Jerusalem Post's version of the same quote reads "explode in your face."

The warning was real but it was not a blueprint. Kamel did not give a date, a target list, or operational detail about the coordinated, multi-front assault that followed, The Atlantic reported. Most other warnings Israeli officials received in that window, according to the investigation, pointed toward the possibility of rocket fire or renewed skirmishing in Gaza, not an infiltration of the scale Hamas carried out. That distinction is the strongest case Israeli officials have made, before and since, for why a warning about escalation did not trigger a mobilization against invasion: the specific threat that materialized was not the one being described to them.

Still, officials from seven countries told The Atlantic that the identity of the messenger should have been enough on its own. Sending the head of Egyptian intelligence on an unannounced, hour-long trip was itself a signal. "The messenger was the message," one former Israeli official said, adding there was no scenario in which senior Israeli officials met Kamel without Netanyahu knowing.

Exactly which Israeli officials sat down with Kamel that day is unclear. What is documented is the denial that followed. Days after October 7, Netanyahu's office said the prime minister "has not spoken or met with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the establishment of the government, neither directly nor indirectly." Tzachi Hanegbi, then head of Netanyahu's National Security Council, went further and denied Kamel had visited Israel at all, according to Arab News and the Jerusalem Post. The Atlantic said neither Netanyahu's nor Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's office responded to requests for comment on the new reporting.

The Atlantic frames the Kamel visit as one entry in a longer pattern of warnings Israel is said to have received before October 7, including a phone call from UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to Netanyahu, according to Arab News's summary of the report. PBS's Washington Week panel discussed the investigation this week as part of the broader reckoning over what Israeli intelligence and political leadership knew before the attack.

A Separate, Current Story: Israel Now Feeding Intelligence to Saudi Arabia

While the Kamel episode reopens questions about a three-year-old failure, a very different and current chapter of Israeli-Arab intelligence cooperation is unfolding right now. Israel has begun passing intelligence to Saudi Arabia through U.S. Central Command as Riyadh confronts an escalating Houthi offensive, according to Israel's Kan News and Israel Hayom, both cited by Breitbart.

Saudi Arabia first asked Washington for help, and the U.S. in turn approached Israel, which is now routing intelligence to Riyadh through CENTCOM, Kan News reported, citing a regional diplomat. Israel Hayom reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approached Israel indirectly through CENTCOM specifically to help prevent the Houthis from blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The stakes are visible on the ground. Air raid sirens sounded Tuesday in Mecca, Jeddah and Taif as Houthi forces pushed missiles and drones deeper into Saudi territory, according to Breitbart. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed Saudi warplanes struck Houthi positions 52 times in 24 hours and warned the attacks "will not go unanswered."

CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper met bin Salman in Jeddah on Monday and was involved in security discussions in Cairo the next day around a meeting between bin Salman and Sisi, where CENTCOM representatives reportedly proposed a joint regional mechanism to help Saudi Arabia counter the Houthis, Breitbart reported. Sisi and bin Salman publicly emphasized securing navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.

That coordination follows a gathering in Germany the week prior, where Cooper brought together military chiefs from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt, described by CENTCOM as the first such meeting since a conflict involving Iran began in February. Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir briefed the assembled commanders on Israeli operations, according to Breitbart.

Three years ago, a direct warning delivered by Egypt's own spy chief reportedly went unheeded inside Netanyahu's government. Now Israel is the one supplying intelligence to an Arab government under attack, routed through an American command structure built for exactly this kind of coordination. What is documented is the flight log from Ben Gurion Airport dated September 26, 2023, and the fact that Netanyahu's office has still not responded to The Atlantic's questions about it.