Texas Early Vote Hits 6.3 Million, Up 50% From 2022, as Senate Battleground States Surge Ahead of Nov. 3

Since the early-vote total passed 43 million this week, state-level numbers show where the surge is concentrated: the states that will decide the Senate. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Where the early vote is surging

An Associated Press analysis of voting data found more than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, Oct. 28. At the same point four years ago, the figure was 4.2 million. That is a 50% increase.

Early voting is up more than 30% from the same point in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, all states with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, it is up 83%.

Nationally, more than 43 million people have voted in person or returned mail ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. The count covers 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states and the capital four years ago.

The Epoch Times tallied that 14 states had already passed their entire 2022 early-vote totals by Oct. 29, with at least 14 others well ahead of their 2022 pace. In Tennessee, in-person early votes passed 1 million on Oct. 28. That is 47% above the same point in 2022 and 27% above all early votes cast that year.

South Carolina had about 800,000 early ballots by Oct. 28, nearly double its 2022 pace at that point and about half of all votes cast in that election, according to the same count.

What the party numbers show

In states that report party affiliation, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have cast early ballots. The AP cautions that these figures do not cover all early voters nationwide and do not show which candidates received the votes.

The Epoch Times sample found that Democrats made up 44% of early voters, against 31% for Republicans and 25% for others. Women made up 55% of that sample and men 45%.

Party registration did not always track turnout. In Iowa, Republican registrations exceed Democratic ones by 29%, yet fewer Republicans had voted early so far, according to the Epoch Times analysis. The same mismatch showed up in Kentucky, North Carolina and Louisiana.

Historically, early voting peaks about a week before Election Day, the Epoch Times noted, so the early numbers are a partial picture.

The Senate map

Republicans hold 53 of 100 Senate seats. Democrats need a net gain of four. NPR reports that the Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas as Toss Ups. Cook also sees North Carolina as a likely Democratic flip and Georgia as a likely Democratic hold.

NPR attributes the widening map to the continuing war in Iran. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, has called for an "immediate end" to that war, according to TIME.

The Daily Wire's rundown of polling puts Democrat James Talarico 1.5 points ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. It says polls vary, with some showing a dead heat or a slim Paxton edge. It puts Democrat Troy Jackson 1.4 points ahead of Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed less than two points ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan.

President Trump is holding rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock this week. The Daily Wire says Republicans are worried about sluggish rural turnout in Texas.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York said Democrats have "so many candidates running in so many deep red and purple places, and they are winning."

The Alaska dispute

The Alaska race is the sharpest legal fight. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, and a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., is also on the ballot. The New York Times reported that his candidacy was part of an effort involving Peltola campaign members to help her bid. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into the Peltola campaign.

National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary Bernadette Breslin called the episode "desperate conspiracies to defraud voters" that "appear criminal."

This month the Justice Department filed a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska's Senate result if it suggests the incumbent lost because of "voter confusion" over the two Dan Sullivans. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Polling has Sullivan and Peltola neck and neck, and Trump campaigned for Sullivan in Wasilla on Oct. 13.

Whether a court will ever have to rule on that certification suit depends on a result close enough to trigger it.