What Actually Happened Thursday and Friday

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding on Thursday, May 29, 2026, to extend the ceasefire in the now three-month-old war by 60 days and launch a new round of nuclear talks, according to a U.S. official cited by AP News via PBS NewsHour.

Iran did NOT immediately confirm any deal.

Vice President JD Vance confirmed the tentative agreement Thursday evening but was blunt about where it stands: "It's hard to say exactly when or if the president's going to sign." He told reporters the two sides are still "going back and forth on a couple of language points."

Then Friday happened — and things got messier.

Trump's Situation Room Meeting Ended With Nothing

Friday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was about to make his "final determination" on the deal and would be heading into a Situation Room meeting to do it.

He walked out without making one.

An administration official told CNBC that Trump ended the Situation Room meeting without announcing a final decision. No deal signed. No announcement. No clarity.

Before the meeting, Trump posted a list of conditions on Truth Social: Iran must agree to NEVER have a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz must be "immediately open" with zero tolls, enriched uranium buried at destroyed nuclear sites must be unearthed and destroyed in coordination with the IAEA, and no money exchanges hands until further notice.

Iran's state outlet Fars pushed back within hours, saying Trump's post "raised issues that contradict the provisions of the agreement's text," according to CNBC.

Mohsen Rezaee, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, went further — accusing Trump of "betraying diplomacy" and claiming he's pursuing "other objectives."

What the Tentative Deal Actually Contains

The emerging memorandum addresses these points, per the U.S. official cited by AP:

• Iran cannot impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran must remove all mines from the waterway within 30 days.
• A 60-day window for new nuclear negotiations begins.
• Iran would put its nuclear program — including stockpiles of highly enriched uranium — on the table during those talks, per a senior Iranian diplomat cited by NewsNation via ISNA news agency.
• Access to frozen assets is conditional. A senior administration official told NewsNation's Katie Pavlich the terms simply: "No dust? No dollars." Iran doesn't see a dime until it surrenders what officials are calling "nuclear dust" — partially enriched uranium believed to be buried in rubble from last year's strikes.

Whether Trump signs it is a different question entirely.

The Blockade Is Still Running

While diplomats negotiate, the U.S. Navy isn't standing down. AP News reported the U.S. military disabled another commercial ship attempting to breach the blockade and reach Iran — the latest in a string of such interdictions.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began. Iran was letting roughly two dozen commercial ships per day pass in recent days, according to PBS NewsHour, compared to more than 100 per day before the war. Iran also set up a formal gatekeeper agency and was charging tolls for at least some vessels.

That's why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that oil prices could "come down very quickly" once a deal is finalized. That's still an if.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Several outlets are framing this as a near-done deal. It is NOT.

The ceasefire itself has been "wavering," per AP — less than 24 hours before the tentative agreement, Kuwait intercepted missiles fired from Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. A ceasefire that requires missile interceptions is not holding as intended.

Iran's government hasn't publicly confirmed the tentative deal at all. Their state media is contradicting Trump's public demands. Their supreme leader's advisor is calling Trump's moves a betrayal. The two sides are not aligned.

Iran's internet blackout — 87 days long — has reportedly ended, per NewsNation citing Iranian state media. A government that just lifted an 87-day information blackout on its own population is navigating serious domestic pressure. This suggests significant internal divisions over the agreement.

Rubio's Warning

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi on Monday, made the American position plain: reach a deal, or face "another way." He declined to specify what that means.

He's been clear about the conditions — Hormuz access, nuclear concessions, structured timeline. Whether Iran's leadership can politically deliver on those without its hardliners derailing negotiations remains uncertain.

Where Things Stand

Oil prices dropped when Trump posted his conditions Friday morning — markets wanted clarity. They didn't get it.

Every day the Strait of Hormuz stays closed or restricted, the cost of energy for American families stays elevated. Bessent promised quick relief if a deal lands. But Trump hasn't signed, Iran hasn't confirmed, missiles were still flying Wednesday, and the Navy is still stopping ships.

This deal could close in 48 hours. It could also collapse. No one can say with certainty which way this goes.