What Changed Since Last Report

When Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned about European airline failures, jet fuel was hitting $150 a barrel. Now jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the Iran conflict began.

According to BBC News, the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of internationally traded jet fuel flows daily — has been closed or severely disrupted for nearly two months. Airlines are not absorbing the price increases. They are passing them on, and when they can't, they are canceling routes entirely.

Which Airlines Are Already Cutting Flights

According to the New York Post, airlines that have already started canceling flights include:

• Delta Air Lines
• United Airlines
• Air Canada
• AirAsia X
• Lufthansa
• SAS

The list covers North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

Europe Is the Most Exposed

BBC News transport correspondent Theo Leggett says Europe lacks the refining capacity to supply itself. More than half of Europe's jet fuel comes from imports, and the Gulf region is its primary supplier. The UK alone is Europe's biggest consumer of jet fuel — and it is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supply chains it cannot replace overnight.

The International Energy Agency warned in mid-April that Europe could run out of jet fuel within six weeks, according to the New York Post.

The Economic Angle

Most coverage frames the crisis as a travel inconvenience — tips on flexible booking, fare tracking, vacation planning urgency. Aviation, however, is freight, logistics, business travel, and global supply chains. When fuel doubles in price and airlines start cutting long-haul routes, the damage extends to cargo routes, business investment, and regional economies dependent on tourism.

The U.S. maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for crude oil. There is no equivalent cushion for refined aviation fuel.

Long-Haul Routes at Greatest Risk

Chris Harrington, managing director of airport and travel platform Hoppa, told the New York Post that long-haul routes are the most at risk of cancellation compared to short-haul flights. More fuel burned means more exposure to price spikes and less margin to absorb the cost.

What Travelers Can Do

Harrington's advice via the New York Post:

• Contact your airline immediately if a flight is canceled — don't wait in the airport queue, use the app.
• You are legally entitled to a refund even if the airline won't rebook you.
• Ask about alternate routes — different airports, partner carriers.
• Be flexible. This is the only realistic posture right now.

Travel insurance matters here too. Policies that cover trip cancellation due to airline operational failures — NOT just weather — are worth reviewing before you leave.

The Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The war in Iran continues. There is no alternative supply chain that closes this gap in weeks.

Every week that the Strait stays disrupted puts pressure on a global aviation industry already running thin margins post-pandemic. When routes stop being profitable, airlines eliminate them — and some won't return even after the crisis ends.

Summer 2026 air travel is likely to be more expensive, less reliable, and more chaotic than anything travelers have experienced since COVID. Unlike that crisis, there is no government bailout narrative waiting. The fuel is simply unavailable, the prices are real, and the flights are being cut.