The Number Nobody's Leading With

Since Election Day 2024, the S&P 500's total return has climbed more than 25% as of April 20, 2026. According to U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, that's the baseline fact.

Yet most mainstream coverage obsesses over the scary drops while burying the recoveries.

The Drops Were Real. So Were the Recoveries.

Within the first two months of Trump's second term, the S&P 500 experienced one of the fastest falls to correction territory since World War II, according to CNBC. The culprit: tariff uncertainty. Then came the "Liberation Day" announcement, which pushed the index close to bear market territory — defined as a 20% or greater decline from recent highs.

The rebounds that followed were historically fast. According to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall, the two pullbacks of 5% to 9.9% that occurred since early 2025 both reversed faster than the median 34-day recovery — better than any president back to Ronald Reagan in 1981.

The most recent bounce — a 9.1% decline reversed in just 16 calendar days — tied for the ninth-fastest recovery since World War II, per CFRA. Stovall said: "The bull market takes the stairs, whereas bear markets take the elevator. What we're seeing in Trump 2.0 is lower volatility overall combined with a quicker-than-average recovery from sharp sell-offs."

What's Actually Driving This

Earnings. Corporate profits are doing the work that politics gets credit for.

S&P 500 companies posted 9.2% revenue growth and 13.4% earnings growth in Q4 2025, according to U.S. Bank. First-quarter 2026 results are coming in above analyst expectations of 9.6% revenue and 13.0% earnings growth. FactSet data cited by CNBC shows first-quarter S&P 500 earnings grew more than 20% year over year — near the strongest profit expansion since Q4 2021.

Bill Merz, head of capital markets research for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, said: "Investors have overcome concerns about geopolitical conflict and trade announcements and focused on fundamental strength, namely corporate earnings growth."

Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, added: "The equity market is still trending higher. That goes back to healthy fundamentals."

The Iran Factor

The most recent catalyst for record highs was geopolitical, not domestic. A U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and reports of a one-page framework to restart negotiations, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end the conflict pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs, according to U.S. Bank. Lower anticipated energy costs and broader market participation followed.

The "Market as Guardrail" Myth

The Independent and Bloomberg both floated a theory going into Trump's second term: the stock market would be the last guardrail constraining Trump's wildest policy moves. Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN before the term began: "I don't see Congress or the courts limiting the president's authority. Ultimately, the only entity that has real power over the president's thinking about his agenda is the stock market."

Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told CNBC: "President-elect Trump is the most pro-stock market president we have had in our history. He measured his success in his first term by how well the stock market did."

The theory had logic. Trump obsessively posted stock market updates on Twitter during his first term. A market tanking was supposed to make him blink.

So far, the guardrail theory has had mixed results. Trump announced tariffs that sent markets into freefall — and then kept going. The market dropped. He didn't fully reverse course. Earnings saved the rally, not a presidential pivot.

What Both Sides Get Wrong

Left-leaning outlets frame every dip as a verdict on Trump's presidency and downplay the recovery speed. Right-leaning coverage credits Trump personally for every new record high, ignoring that corporate America — not executive tweets — is the engine.

The reality: Trump's policies created the volatility. Corporate earnings absorbed it. Both things are true.

Smaller-company stocks have risen more than 66% from last April's lows, per U.S. Bank — a sign that confidence is broad-based, not just a mega-cap tech story.

What This Means for Regular People

If your 401(k) is up since Election Day 2024, the fundamentals — not your political preferences — explain why. Corporate profits are real. The recoveries are real.

The volatility is also real. Anyone who panic-sold during the tariff correction locked in losses. U.S. Bank's wealth advisors are recommending rebalancing, diversification, and gradual investing over headline-chasing.

Companies earned those profits. Your choice to stay invested made the difference.