Russia Gained 46 Square Miles in Ukraine in 10 Months of 2026, ISW Says

Russia opened its fifth year of full-scale war aiming to seize the last Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk. Through the end of October, it has taken 117.38 square kilometers (45.32 square miles) in all of Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington think tank that tracks the front using geolocated footage.

In 2025, ISW counted 5,304 square kilometers (2,048 square miles), including 473 square kilometers of Russian territory retaken in Kursk. In 2024 the figure was 3,604.

The daily rate shows the trend. Russia advanced about 0.38 square kilometers a day this year, versus 13.25 in 2025 and 9.9 in 2024.

ISW says Russia has lost more ground than it gained for the past two months. It lost firm control of some territory in April and May but widened contested areas where its troops had infiltrated. In September and October it lost both.

What broke the Donetsk plan

Moscow's plan for 2026 was a pincer around Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. One army would push south from Lyman. Another would push north from Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian forces stopped the Pokrovsk push this spring. Over the summer they prepared a counterattack around Lyman, called Operation Vivaldi.

George Barros, an ISW analyst, credits Ukraine's midrange strike campaign. "That's a critical capability that they didn't have in 2025," he said. Mostly Ukrainian-built drones have hit Russian supply routes behind the front, starving troops of ammunition and making reinforcement difficult.

"Russian logistics are disrupted. They haven't really recovered from that," Barros said. Last year Russian vehicles could drive highways in occupied eastern Ukraine to within about 20 miles of the front with little fear of being hit.

Ukrainian infantry and armor, working with drone units, launched the ground phase in September. Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletskiy, commander of Ukraine's Third Army Corps, said that by mid-October his forces had retaken 107 square miles and 16 settlements near Lyman. He put Russian casualties in the operation at around 8,000.

Barros said the operation showed tanks and heavy vehicles can still work in a sky full of drones, provided logistics are hit first and enemy drone pilots are targeted as the main attack begins.

The casualty claims

Ukraine's General Staff estimates 54,400 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded in October, the highest monthly figure of the war. President Volodymyr Zelensky cited roughly 54,000. Earlier peaks were 42,860 in July and 46,230 in September.

For January 1 through October 31, the General Staff puts the total at 381,300. Zelensky set a monthly target of 50,000 Russian casualties in January.

These are Ukrainian estimates and have not been independently verified. Both sides inflate and hide numbers in wartime.

If they are even roughly right, the math is brutal for Moscow. Russia's estimated recruitment capacity is 24,000 to 30,000 a month. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, called his units' October results "industrial-scale destruction of the enemy." He said they inflicted 16,796 casualties, up 24% from September.

Russia hits the grid

Zelensky and his prime minister say Russia's worsening battlefield position explains its intensified long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. Many Ukrainians read the attacks as psychological warfare, since civilians keep dying.

In the week ending November 6, Russia launched 2,346 drones and more than 80 missiles across Ukraine. November 3 was the peak, with 370 drones and 76 missiles. Hundreds of thousands of families are dealing with blackouts as winter sets in.

One strike hit the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, where a resilience center was distributing humanitarian aid. Ukraine has raised the death toll to at least 50.

"The invaders knew that on Mondays, humanitarian aid was distributed at the Komyshuvakha resilience centre," Ukraine's military intelligence service (GUR) said. Russia has not been shown to have targeted anything but civilian sites in that attack, and the GUR's claim about intent is Ukraine's own assessment.

What comes next

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Russian army is making one more push in Donetsk after its offensive was foiled. The detail of that effort has not been laid out publicly.

Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka remain in Ukrainian hands, as of today, Nov. 7. It is unclear whether Russia can rebuild its supply lines and replace losses at a pace Ukrainian estimates say exceeds its recruitment by tens of thousands a month, or whether it keeps shifting to long-range strikes on the power grid.