The Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

Compass completed its $1.6 billion acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate in early January 2026, creating what is now called Compass International Holdings — the largest residential real estate firm in the country, with 340,000 agents and franchisees.

Prior to the merger, Compass had $231 billion in sales in 2024. Anywhere — parent to Corcoran, Sotheby's International Realty, Coldwell Banker, Century 21, ERA, and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate — had $184 billion. Combined, they are a monster.

How big? An analysis by The Capital Forum, cited by The Real Deal and HousingWire, found the combined entity controlled more than 80% of transaction volume in Manhattan and over 60% in San Francisco in 2024. In Newport Beach, California, the number reportedly exceeds legally tolerable thresholds in at least a dozen states.

For reference, federal merger guidelines from the FTC state that a combined market share above 30% may indicate a merger has substantially lessened competition. Compass and Anywhere hit nearly triple that in some markets.

How Did the Feds Miss This?

The deal cleared its Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period without any federal action from the DOJ or FTC — despite the fact that DOJ antitrust staff reportedly pushed for an extended review. According to The Wall Street Journal, those career staff recommendations were overruled by then-Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

Why? According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, Compass had retained Mike Davis — a lawyer with connections to President Donald Trump — to help push the deal through. Compass and its attorneys reportedly appealed directly to Blanche's office, arguing antitrust concerns could be handled without a full investigation.

The deal closed months ahead of schedule. It was originally expected to close in the second half of 2026. Instead it was done by January 9th.

In February 2026, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), joined by 16 other Democrats, sent a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi pressing for details on the DOJ's review. Warren separately said the deal closed "far ahead of schedule."

A well-connected law firm, a politically-connected lawyer, and a deal that got expedited clearance over the objections of career antitrust professionals. That combination has drawn scrutiny from both sides.

Stock Market Response

Compass shares dropped 12.69% to $7.54 on Wednesday, June 4, according to data reported by Seeking Alpha. By Thursday morning shares had partially recovered to around $7.92, per the NY Post.

Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein told the NY Post the broader real estate sector was already soft Wednesday due to oil concerns and interest rate conditions. He noted Thursday is typically a better day for tech-adjacent stocks. He also said: "We don't know if they're actually going to charge Compass."

Barclays was more bullish. The firm maintained its Overweight rating on Compass, telling clients the selloff was a "punitive" overreaction and that the stock has "meaningful upside potential," according to TradingView. The 12-month average price target across 12 analysts sits at $13.17, representing roughly 53% upside from Wednesday's close, per Koyfin data cited by TradingView.

Nine of the 12 analysts covering COMP rate it Buy or higher.

What the AG Can Actually Do

AG James's office confirmed to the NY Post that an antitrust investigation is underway. Bisnow reported Thursday that if the investigation finds the merger violated antitrust law, the AG's office could pursue legal action to force Compass to sell assets.

James's office has been contacting executives at top New York City brokerages requesting information, according to HousingWire, which confirmed the outreach independently. Compass declined to comment publicly.

What This Means for Real Estate Markets

Real estate commissions and listing access directly affect anyone buying or selling a home.

In December 2025, Senators Warren and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) argued the merger could harm homebuyers by driving up broker fees and limiting access to property listings. Compass has already been pushing "private listings" — properties marketed internally before hitting the open market — which critics say limits competition and can disadvantage sellers and buyers who aren't plugged into the Compass network.

If one firm controls 80% of Manhattan's transaction volume, homeowners and buyers in that market have few alternatives.

The federal government looked at this and waved it through anyway — apparently with political intervention. Now a state AG is doing the job the feds didn't.

Whether you trust Letitia James or not — and there are fair reasons for skepticism given her political track record — the underlying market concentration numbers are real. Someone needed to ask the question. The fact that it took a state AG to do it, months after the feds declined to take action, raises serious questions about how this deal received approval in the first place.