Nvidia Discloses 9.3% Stake in Nebius, Stock Jumps 16-17% Tuesday

Nvidia filed paperwork Tuesday confirming what everyone already knew. The chipmaker owns 9.3% of Nebius Group, the Amsterdam-based AI cloud company. Nebius stock jumped 16% to 17%, depending on the source, hitting roughly $212 a share.

This is not new money. Nvidia's stake traces back to a $2 billion investment announced March 11, 2026, according to Crypto Briefing. The Schedule 13G filed July 13 just makes it official on paper.

Nvidia holds about 1.19 million Class A shares outright, plus 21.07 million shares it can access through a pre-funded warrant, according to Barchart and 24/7 Wall St. Total position: roughly 22.25 million shares, or 9.3% of the class.

One key detail: Nvidia can't touch the warrant shares yet. Contractual restrictions bar the company from exercising the warrant or selling underlying shares before September 11, according to 24/7 Wall St. So this isn't Nvidia cashing out or dumping stock. It's a passive filing, a Schedule 13G rather than a 13D, which signals Nvidia isn't trying to control Nebius or its board.

A 13G is the SEC's standard form for investors who cross the 5% ownership threshold without seeking operational control. It's paperwork, not a takeover.

Nebius has had a wild year regardless of Tuesday's filing. The stock is up nearly 250% over the past 12 months, according to CNBC, and up 155% year-to-date according to 24/7 Wall St. Barchart notes shares are still down about 30% from their June high, meaning Tuesday's pop is a partial recovery, not a fresh all-time high.

The company's business case has real substance behind it. Meta signed a deal in March to spend up to $27 billion on Nebius infrastructure over time, according to CNBC. Nebius also raised $775 million in its first senior secured debt facility on July 17, backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer, a raise Freedom Capital Markets called a "positive catalyst" in a note Monday, per CNBC.

Revenue is growing fast. Nebius posted a nearly 8x year-over-year jump in first-quarter revenue to $399 million, according to Barchart, with the company targeting annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end.

None of that means the stock is cheap. Nebius trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 82.36x, according to 24/7 Wall St, on a market cap around $46 billion. Wall Street's mean price target sits near $238, implying about 10% upside from current levels, according to Barchart. That's a modest expected gain for a stock already priced for enormous growth.

A passive 13G filing confirming an already-known investment shouldn't move a stock 16% to 17% in a single session. 24/7 Wall St flagged this directly, noting Wall Street is "debating whether the valuation has outrun the fundamentals." An 82x earnings multiple leaves little room for disappointment if Nebius misses its own revenue targets or if AI infrastructure spending slows.

The rally wasn't confined to Nebius. CoreWeave stock rose 8% to $79 the same day, though 24/7 Wall St noted there was no company-specific catalyst behind that move, calling it "a sympathy trade" riding Nebius's headline news. Oracle climbed 5% to $127 on a Mizuho note reiterating an Outperform rating and a $320 price target, even as Oracle's five-year credit default swap costs hit their highest level since 2008 and S&P Global Ratings downgraded the company to BBB-, one notch above junk.

Nvidia's filing gave Nebius a real, documented reason to move. CoreWeave's pop rode momentum with nothing new behind it. Oracle's bounce came from an analyst price target even as its credit markets are pricing in more risk than they have in nearly two decades.

Nebius shares are now testing their 20-day moving average, with a break above $220 seen by traders as the next momentum marker, according to Barchart. The bigger open question is whether Nvidia's warrant, once unlocked on September 11, gets exercised, and what that does to Nebius's share count and any future dilution math investors haven't fully priced in yet.