Norway's September Gas Output Fell 12.6% From August and Missed Forecast by 6.7%

Since European gas prices climbed to four-year highs near €90/MWh last week, Norway, the continent's largest gas supplier, has reported a sharp September dip in production.

Preliminary data from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, published Tuesday, Oct. 20, show natural gas output averaged 298.4 million standard cubic metres per day. That is 12.6% below August's roughly 341.6 million, a fall of 43.2 million cubic metres per day. It also missed the regulator's own forecast of 319.9 million by 6.7%.

The numbers

Total petroleum production came in at about 3.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That is down 10.4% from August, 4% below the directorate's forecast and 2.3% below September 2025.

Crude oil averaged 1.73 million barrels per day, 145,000 barrels (7.7%) less than in August. It was 0.7% above the monthly forecast of 1.72 million but well under the 1.89 million produced a year earlier. Total liquids, covering oil, condensate and natural gas liquids, fell by 168,000 barrels per day to about 1.9 million.

Gas sales totalled about 9 billion cubic metres in September, against 10.6 billion in August.

Maintenance, not a collapse

The regulator's figures also carry context that cuts against a panic reading. September gas output was still 5.1% higher than the 283.9 million cubic metres per day recorded in September 2025. Across the first nine months of 2026, total hydrocarbon production reached roughly 181.7 million cubic metres of oil equivalent, 2.9% more than the same period last year.

Norwegian output swings from month to month with maintenance and other stoppages across its roughly 100 offshore fields. The September dip coincided with the tail end of the annual maintenance season. At the end of August, pipeline operator Gassco warned that scheduled work could cut export capacity by about 20%. Its transparency data pointed to a total reduction at fields and processing plants of as much as 71 million cubic metres per day.

On Oct. 1, Gassco reported that the major scheduled repair work was finished.

One outage that isn't over

Not every stoppage ended with the maintenance season. An extended shutdown at the Shell-operated Ormen Lange field continues. It is expected to trim gas supply by about 7.9 million cubic metres per day until Feb. 1, 2027, which covers the whole core heating season.

That is small next to the 43.2 million cubic metre monthly drop. But it is a loss with a known end date about three and a half months out, and it lands on a market with little slack.

A thin storage cushion

Europe is entering winter with less gas in the ground than usual. Industry forecasts cited in market reviews put EU storage at only 75% to 78% full by Nov. 1, about 10 percentage points below the five-year average. LSEG estimates that Northwest European inventories could fall to around 20% by early April even if temperatures are near normal.

ABN Amro's stress scenarios for a cold winter are more severe. By one count, benchmark European prices have risen more than 150% this year.

The pressure traces to restricted shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, which hit Qatar and the UAE. Together they account for nearly 20% of global LNG exports. Asian buyers that lost those cargoes competed with Europe for U.S., Canadian and Nigerian supply, and Europe could not refill storage at its usual summer pace.

Rising U.S. LNG shipments to Europe and falling freight rates from new vessel deliveries have eased some of the strain, though only partly offsetting the Middle East gap.

Underground storage normally supplies roughly 25% to 30% of EU winter gas demand. Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG cover most of the rest. With storage lower, pipeline flows matter more than usual.

What to watch

The directorate's September numbers are preliminary, and October figures will show how much of the dip reversed now that the Gassco maintenance work is done. Output at Ormen Lange stays reduced until Feb. 1, 2027, and the Nov. 1 storage level will show how close Europe comes to the 75% to 78% forecast.