NOAA's August 2026 Outlook: Southeast and Southern Plains Set for Above-Normal Heat, Southwest Monsoon Could Bring Relief

A Split Forecast for August

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its August 2026 outlook on July 16. The message is regional and specific: bake in the Southeast, expect a soggier monsoon in the Southwest.

The agency's forecasters say a moderate El Niño is the main driver. Weekly sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region in the tropical Pacific sat 1.3 degrees Celsius above normal as of the outlook's release, according to NOAA. That's squarely in moderate El Niño territory and carries more weight in this forecast than any other climate signal NOAA tracked.

Forecasters also looked at a stalled Madden-Julian Oscillation, a globe-circling wave of tropical rainfall and wind, along with shifts in the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific North American index. None of those carried as much predictive weight as El Niño itself, per NOAA.

Who Gets the Heat

The Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic have the best odds for above-normal temperatures in August, with NOAA's confidence exceeding 50 percent. Dry soil conditions and warm coastal waters are feeding that signal, and NOAA says both government and university climate models agree on it.

The Southern Plains carry roughly a 40 percent chance of above-normal heat, which NOAA notes tracks with how this region typically behaves during El Niño years. A smaller signal, between 33 and 50 percent, stretches up the East Coast.

Out west, the Pacific Northwest and California coast also lean warm, but NOAA kept those numbers conservative. Cooler ocean water off both coastlines is working against the broader warming signal, according to the outlook.

Alaska splits down the middle. Most of the state south of the North Slope leans warm. The North Slope itself sits in "equal chances" territory because sea ice there is running above normal for this time of year, NOAA says.

The One Cool Spot, With a Catch

The Northern Plains is the outlier, with a 33 to 40 percent chance of below-normal temperatures. NOAA is upfront that this call rests on cooler patterns observed in past El Niño years, not strong computer model agreement. A forecast built mostly on historical analogs, rather than current model guidance, carries more uncertainty than one where the models and the history line up.

The interior Southwest sits in true equal-chances territory. NOAA says competing signals—cooler historical analog years pulling one way and warmer model guidance pulling the other—canceled each other out, leaving no clear lean toward warm, cool, or average conditions.

Where the Rain Goes

Two big stretches of the country stand out for wetter-than-normal odds. The first covers much of the interior West, including the Great Basin, the Southwest, the Northern and Central Rockies, and the Northern High Plains. NOAA sees this as an early signal for an active monsoon season, with chances of above-normal rain running 33 to 50 percent, highest over the Four Corners region.

Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been closely watched for over a decade as Colorado River water levels strained under demand from seven states. An above-normal monsoon won't solve that on its own, but it's a data point worth tracking as the season plays out.

What's Actually Solid Here, and What Isn't

NOAA's own outlook draws a clear line between signals backed by model consensus, like the Southeast heat call, and signals leaning on historical analogs alone, like the Northern Plains cool forecast. A 40 percent chance backed by multiple independent models is a different kind of confidence than a 35 percent chance based mostly on how the last few El Niño years played out.

The outlook is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will issue updated monthly outlooks as August approaches, and the agency's seasonal drought monitor updates will show whether the Southwest's early monsoon signal actually verifies once the rain totals come in.