Nike Hits 12-Year Low After BofA Downgrade Slashes Price Target to $30

Since Nike flagged a prolonged turnaround back in June, citing persistent weakness in China alongside a modest fiscal fourth-quarter revenue beat, Wall Street's patience has been running out. On Friday, Bank of America made that impatience official.

BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded Nike to Underperform from Neutral and slashed her price target to $30 from $47, according to Yahoo Finance and TipRanks. That's roughly 17% downside from Thursday's close. Shares dropped as much as 2% in premarket trading before settling down about 1.3% at $35.54, according to rallies.ai, a level Nike hasn't seen since 2014.

Nike is now down about 44% year to date. Compare that to a roughly 5% decline in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector and a 13% gain in the broader S&P 500, per LSEG data cited by rallies.ai. That's not a sector problem. That's a Nike problem.

The Numbers Behind the Cut

Hutchinson cut her fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings-per-share estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively. Her new FY27 EPS forecast of $1.43 sits about 14% below Visible Alpha consensus, according to The Fly's reporting carried by Yahoo Finance.

She now expects negative sales growth all the way through fiscal 2027, abandoning her earlier call for a spring 2027 inflection point. BofA is pushing the real recovery out to 2028, nine months later than previously modeled.

Hutchinson also flagged that Nike's dividend payout ratio has crossed 100%, prompting BofA to cut its income rating on the stock to 8 (same/lower) from 7 (same/higher). Her new $30 target is based on a 16x price-to-earnings multiple, down from 22x, which she says now aligns Nike with peer-average valuations instead of a premium.

Wholesale Was the One Bright Spot. Now That's Fading Too

North American wholesale had been Nike's strongest channel, growing 14% in fiscal 2026 even as total company sales stayed flat, according to Blockonomi's summary of the BofA note. Hutchinson says that's about to slow, because sell-through, meaning actual sales to consumers, is lagging sell-in, meaning shipments to retailers, particularly on classic footwear styles and new launches that missed expectations.

Retailers who can't move inventory stop ordering more of it. BofA models North American wholesale sales turning negative starting in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 and staying negative the rest of the fiscal year.

Greater China revenue fell 17% in the most recent quarter, according to Yahoo Finance. BofA's own luxury goods analysts, after on-the-ground visits, found soft athletic demand and new products failing to connect with Chinese consumers.

Not Every Analyst Agrees the Turnaround Is Dead

Oppenheimer cut its Nike price target to $52 from $60 on Wednesday, Sept. 23, but kept an Outperform rating, according to Yahoo Finance. Oppenheimer's updated Secondary Market Shoe Tracker actually showed some improvement from its initial reading, pointing to better underlying demand for collaborations and Kobe-branded products specifically.

Barclays also cut its target that same day, to $48 from $52, while keeping an Overweight rating. Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih described Nike's recovery as following a "margins before sales" path, meaning profitability is improving even as top-line growth lags, and said the return to sales growth "will not be linear."

Two major firms looked at the same fiscal Q1 preview data this week and concluded the stock still deserves a buy rating, just at a lower price. Thirteen of 44 brokerages still rate Nike a buy or strong buy, 25 rate it hold, and only six rate it a sell, with a median price target of $44.80, according to LSEG data cited by rallies.ai. That's a wide gap from BofA's $30.

It's Nike-Specific, Not an Industry Problem

Ground News's roundup noted that while Nike shares slumped Friday, Dick's Sporting Goods rose 2% and On Holding held flat, suggesting the selloff is contained to Nike rather than reflecting a broader athletic retail slump. CEO Elliott Hill has previously acknowledged that sell-through in Nike Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear "remains challenged," which BofA says puts future order books at risk as retailers grow cautious about betting on new product before it proves itself.

Nike reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue fell 1% year-over-year to $11.0 billion, with Nike Direct sales down 7%, and the company has guided for revenue to decline in the low-to-mid single digits through the first two quarters of fiscal 2027.

The next real test comes fast. Nike is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, Oct. 1, after markets close, according to Yahoo Finance. That report will show whether BofA's wholesale-slowdown thesis is showing up in the actual numbers, or whether Oppenheimer and Barclays' more patient read on the turnaround holds up instead.