Musk's $445.8 Million in Midterm Giving Rides on Toss-Up Senate Races in Texas and Ohio as Polls Close

Since the Nov. 3 voting day began, the money story of this midterm has come into focus: Elon Musk's donations, the crypto and AI PAC spending behind several races, and the data center fight that has pushed AI into state and federal campaigns.

Musk's record

Federal Election Commission data as of Oct. 29 shows Musk has put at least $445.77 million into Republican-aligned PACs and groups since last year. That makes him the largest single-cycle political donor in modern U.S. history.

He gave nearly $300 million toward Donald Trump's 2024 campaign. After that he said he would step back from large-scale donations. FEC data shows he did the opposite, and about $200 million of the total came in the final two months of the campaign.

The biggest single piece, $216 million, went to his own America PAC. That PAC has targeted 43 House and Senate races, with 839 independent expenditures in House contests and 623 in Senate contests across 17 states. It has spent the most in Texas, where it has put more than $33 million into electing Republican Ken Paxton.

Business Insider puts Musk's giving routed to a pro-Paxton super PAC at no less than $158 million.

Why he is spending

Musk has not laid out a single public rationale in these documents. Conservative commentator Arthur Herman, writing for Fox News, argues Musk believes a Republican majority is "crucial to America's secure and prosperous future." Herman notes Musk shared a post last week agreeing that Democrats "must lose."

Herman also acknowledges the opposing claim: critics say Musk is spending because he fears investigations by a Democratic-controlled Congress. Herman rejects that. No source in these documents offers evidence of Musk's motive beyond those competing assertions.

Musk is not alone on the right. Herman's column lists Citadel's Ken Griffin at $40 million or more to Republican candidates and Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman and his wife Christine at almost $32 million. It also reports that Uline founders Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein put $124 million into their Restoration of America PAC and that ABC Supply's Diane Hendricks gave $25 million to MAGA Inc.

Texas and Ohio

Cook Political Report rates both marquee Senate races as toss-ups.

In Texas, Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Trump endorsed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn after a bitter primary and runoff. Cornyn had warned that Republicans would have to spend heavily to defend a nominee dealing with scandals, an impeachment and a divorce on "biblical grounds." Trump carried Texas by roughly 14 points in 2024, and no Texas Democrat has won statewide since 1994. Most polls close at 8 p.m. ET, with Mountain Time areas closing at 9 p.m. ET.

In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted, the appointed holder of Vice President JD Vance's old seat, is fighting former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. Brown lost to Bernie Moreno by just under 4 points that year. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Brown has attacked Husted over his past support for data center development. Husted says the issue should be left to communities, and he no longer backs tax incentives for new data center construction. This summer the Senate Republicans' campaign arm warned AI labs that if Husted loses "and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one."

Crypto, AI and the data center fight

Reuters reports crypto groups have spent more than $50 million against Brown alone. If Democrats win the Senate, Reuters says Brown's earlier 18 years of seniority could put him back atop the Senate Banking Committee or in a prominent Agriculture Committee role touching crypto policy.

Americans for Financial Reform, an advocacy group that backs tougher financial rules, counts eight crypto and AI PACs that spent more than $100 million on over 70 congressional races in 28 states from January 2025 to July 2026. The group says Andreessen Horowitz and its co-founders gave $74 million to the major PACs. CNBC found that seven of the 20 largest donors and donor groups it studied have major ties to crypto, AI or online gambling.

State races may matter more for the buildout than Washington. Beacon Policy Advisors says ten governor's contests will steer $2.5 trillion in planned AI investment, since state and local authorities handle data center permitting. Beacon named Texas, Georgia and Ohio as the most competitive. Morgan Stanley strategists added Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found only one in three Americans approve of the pace of data center construction.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has drawn criticism for early data center support, while Democrat Gina Hinojosa has embraced public opposition. The latest Siena College poll had Hinojosa at 48 percent to Abbott's 47 percent, though the Epoch Times says Abbott leads by 2.2 points in recent polling overall. Georgia's open governor's race between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson is also rated a toss-up.

JPMorgan strategists say a Republican hold would give AI and infrastructure the most supportive federal backdrop through continuity, deregulation and faster permitting.

What comes next

Current polling points to Democrats winning a House majority, according to the Guardian's reading of the polls, while the Senate turns on a handful of states. California voters are also deciding a wealth tax ballot question that Business Insider flags as a major test of tech-industry political power.

America PAC's FEC filings will show how much of Musk's total went to races that Republicans actually won or lost. Whether Ohio and Texas return Republican senators will be known once the counts come in tonight and in the days after.