Minnesota Senate Race Moves to Lean Democratic as Fraud Fallout and Omar Search Hit Final Stretch

Minnesota's open Senate seat is a real race. The Cook Political Report moved it from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic after a run of polls showed Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a retired football sideline reporter, close.

The most recent poll cited in Minnesota Public Radio's coverage gave Flanagan a 4-point edge. Polls in the weeks since the August primary have shown a tightening race within the margin of error, according to CBS Minnesota.

The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring. Democrats have held it since 2009.

The fraud problem

Fraud in state-run programs is the issue Republicans keep returning to. The Feeding Our Future case, a COVID-era scheme involving fraudulent child nutrition claims, centered on $250 million. The Justice Department probe began under the Biden administration and has produced dozens of indictments. Estimates of the total taxpayer cost range from $250 million to $1 billion.

Republicans say Gov. Tim Walz's administration did too little to stop it. Walz's office says he has "worked for years to crack down on fraud and asked the state Legislature for more authority to take aggressive action." Walz has accepted blame for the fraud, according to CBS Minnesota.

Flanagan is Walz's second in command, and critics argue she shares the blame. She says she is "incredibly angry with the fraud as most Minnesotans are" and points to her support for an independent Office of Inspector General and harsher penalties. She also says the issue was not under her purview as lieutenant governor.

Larry Jacobs, a University of Minnesota political scientist, said the fraud issue has "clearly tarnished her reputation, and her opponent comes back to it constantly." Flanagan has kept her distance from Walz. He has not campaigned in Minnesota this fall and has mostly raised money out of state, according to MPR News. His term ends in early January.

Tafoya outraised Flanagan in the third quarter, $4.3 million to $3.8 million. Newsweek reports Minnesota is the only competitive Senate race where the Republican did so.

Tafoya's Trump problem

Tafoya has her own liability. Trump endorsed her, and she is running as a pro-choice Republican who says that when Trump is wrong, she will "stand up for Minnesota." Asked about the endorsement, she said, "I heard about that."

Trump has hinted he may visit the state. At a rally in Ohio, he attacked members of Minnesota's Somali community, saying they were looting welfare programs, and urged people to vote for Tafoya. Asked at a debate whether she would campaign with him, Tafoya did not answer. Flanagan says Tafoya would be a "lapdog for Trump."

Flanagan is also running on prices. She cites higher gas, diesel and food costs since the start of the Iran war, and says Tafoya took 216 days to say the war was wrong. Tafoya once called on Trump not to run in 2024, so her record on him is mixed.

David Schultz, a Hamline University political scientist, said voters may treat the election as a referendum on the incumbent party, but it is unclear whether that means Trump or Walz. "We don't have enough data to parse that," he said.

The search of Omar's home

The race is unfolding alongside a separate federal story. On Oct. 12, Homeland Security Investigations agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in the Washington, D.C., area. The Justice Department said the agents executed a "judicially authorized search warrant" as part of "an ongoing federal criminal investigation." Its statement did not indicate what the investigation entailed, and no charges have been announced.

A person briefed on the investigation told the Associated Press, on condition of anonymity, that federal authorities are investigating potential fraud in her family's immigration paperwork and have issued grand jury subpoenas to some of her relatives.

Omar says the agents arrived around 6 a.m., searched for four or five hours and seized 17 items, including phones, notebooks, a Somali-language children's book and a vintage camera. She called the agents "intrusive but polite." She said she is "confident in the fact that I didn't do anything wrong." She came to the U.S. with her family at 12 after they obtained asylum, and became a U.S. citizen five years later, in 2000. On the allegation, she said it would be a leap to indict a 12-year-old for conspiring to defraud immigration services. Omar said Wednesday she would move out of the home because the attention left her feeling unsafe.

Omar called the search "the latest escalation" in Trump's "campaign of political intimidation." House Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar called it "deeply disturbing" and said it raises questions about "the continued corrupt weaponization of the federal government."

Trump called Omar "a totally crooked person" but said the search "has nothing to do with me." He said it was "up to the DOJ."

The timing is unusual. The Justice Department has historically avoided overt investigative steps involving candidates close to an election. Omar is running for reelection in a deep-blue Minneapolis district and is expected to keep her seat.

State Sen. Erin Quade told The New Republic the raid is "stoking the same kind of unity feeling that people felt during Metro Surge." She said its purpose is to animate a demoralized Republican base. That is her read of the motive; the Justice Department has not stated one.

What comes next

Voting is already underway. More than 127,000 Minnesotans had voted by Oct. 12, according to the secretary of state. Election Day is Nov. 3.

Tafoya has not given a firm answer on whether having Trump in Minnesota would help or hurt her. Whether the Omar investigation produces charges, and when, is also unknown.