The £125 Billion Price Tag

Over 1 million young Brits are classified as NEET (not in employment, education, or training) — an 11-year high. According to the full findings of Alan Milburn's government-commissioned review, published May 28, 2026, the estimated cost to the UK economy is £125 billion.

What Milburn Found

Milburn, a former Labour Health Secretary turned government reviewer, declared: "This is not a failure of young people; it is a failure of a system stuck in the past."

His interim report found:

• 1,012,000 young people were NEET between January and March 2026, per the Office for National Statistics
• Six in ten NEETs have never held a job — in 2005, it was four in ten
• 84% of NEET young people want to work or train but cannot get in the door
• Without action, that number hits 1.25 million — one in six young people — within five years
• Hospitality vacancies, a traditional entry point for first-time workers, have halved in just four years
• Apprenticeship starts have dropped sharply

Milburn's interim report identifies the crisis. The fix comes "later in 2026" in a final report.

Government Tax Policy and the Crisis

Economists and business leaders have partially blamed the government for the crisis. Firms — particularly in hospitality — slashed recruitment after Prime Minister Keir Starmer's administration imposed hefty increases to payroll taxes and the minimum wage in 2025.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies found that by end of 2025, only half of 16-to-24-year-olds in Britain were in payrolled work. That represents a sharp decline in a short time frame.

Milburn's own report identifies the entry-level job collapse as a "key driver" — and those are exactly the jobs that disappear first when employer costs increase suddenly.

Startmer commissioned this review in November 2025. The review is now indicating his own budget decisions contributed to the problem.

The Human Cost

Zaynah, 24, applied for over 200 jobs in a single year. Not one employer responded. Shana Fatahali, 23, from the West Midlands, has spent two years searching while raising a four-year-old. One graduate applied to "coffee shops and pubs" near the end of her master's degree in criminology and was ignored.

One young person said: "There isn't any jobs out there that fit around my responsibilities as a parent."

Milburn pushed back on the "lazy youth" narrative. According to his comments, young people are not "work-shy, snowflakes, soft." 84% want to work. The shortage is opportunity, not ambition.

AI and Mental Health as Accelerants

Artificial intelligence is eliminating entry-level roles before young workers get a shot at them. AI is automating data entry, basic customer service, and routine admin tasks — the roles that historically served as stepping stones into the workforce.

Worsening mental health among young people is also a factor. Milburn's report notes the welfare and health systems are "no longer fit for purpose" in preparing young people for work. The youth mental health crisis is genuine, and the system that makes it easier to claim benefits than find a first job compounds the problem.

The Political Fallout

Starmer is facing pressure. Labour suffered heavy losses in local elections in May 2026, and Starmer faces a potential leadership challenge. Young voters — traditionally Labour's base — are defecting to the Greens.

Commissioning a review and receiving a report that questions your own tax policy is difficult politically. The solutions are not coming until a later date.

One million young people. £125 billion. A Prime Minister who raised employer costs, now waiting for recommendations on why employers stopped hiring young people.