Leaked Study: Paramount's Threat to Leave California Could Cost the State 58,000 Jobs and $21 Billion a Year

A study Paramount paid for says California stands to lose tens of thousands of jobs if the studio follows through on its threat to leave the state. The numbers favor the guy who commissioned them.

The report, produced by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation's Institute for Applied Economics and dated September 10, was leaked to Politico over the weekend. The Hollywood Reporter and Cosmic Book News both confirmed Paramount commissioned the study itself.

The topline numbers: if Paramount fully relocates out of California, the state would permanently lose between 28,990 and 57,980 full-time jobs across all industries, and between $10.6 billion and $21.2 billion a year in economic output, according to the report. Annual state and local tax revenue losses were pegged at roughly $585 million by ZeroHedge's account of the report, while Cosmic Book News cited a figure as high as $1.17 billion a year. A discrepancy the underlying leaked document itself would need to clarify.

Why This Is Happening

California Attorney General Rob Bonta and eleven other Democratic state attorneys general sued on July 13 to block Paramount Skydance's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery under the Clayton Act. Their complaint argues the combined company would choke competition in wide-release films, top-grossing pictures, and basic cable licensing, according to ZeroHedge.

The Justice Department already looked at this deal and walked away. DOJ closed its own antitrust investigation in June without filing suit, finding the merger unlikely to harm competition in streaming, linear TV, or theatrical distribution, per ZeroHedge.

Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison has responded by threatening to move the company's headquarters and operations to Georgia, Tennessee or Texas if Bonta won't settle by October 1, 2026, according to TheWrap and Variety. October 1 also happens to be the day a $7 million-per-day "ticking fee" to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders kicks in under the merger agreement if the deal hasn't closed.

Paramount has asked a judge to require the states and the Writers Guild of America to post a $1.88 billion to $1.9 billion bond covering those fees and financing costs during the delay. U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin is scheduled to rule on that request at a hearing set for September 24, according to TheWrap and The Hollywood Reporter. A trial in the underlying antitrust case is set to begin March 2, per Variety.

The Range of Scenarios

The study lays out a range of scenarios. On the mild end, if Paramount just trims California spending to cover the ticking fees during a delay, the state loses 550 to 1,110 job-years annually for five years, per ZeroHedge and Cosmic Book News. On the other end, a full relocation is the 58,000-job scenario.

If Bonta settles and Paramount follows through on its pledge to release 30 films a year for three years, the study estimates that would generate 1,020 to 2,760 job-years in California and $377.7 million to $1.01 billion in economic output through September 2031, according to TheWrap and The Hollywood Reporter. Cosmic Book News notes the catch: only about 10 percent of Paramount and Warner Bros. movies actually shoot in California, so the settlement scenario nets the state roughly one extra film a year.

The Other Side of the Ledger

Bonta's concern is straightforward: combining two of Hollywood's biggest studios could mean fewer competing buyers for scripts and talent, less content diversity, and higher prices for consumers. Bonta has repeated this argument publicly, according to time.news. Bonta also cited his own Los Angeles County report projecting 4,500 film and television jobs lost within three years if the merger goes through, a figure that cuts directly against Paramount's framing.

Bonta canceled a scheduled August 24 settlement meeting with Paramount after details of confidential talks leaked to the press, calling the breach "unacceptable," according to time.news. Settlement talks are now expected to resume over two days in late October, per Cosmic Book News.

Industry heavyweights including Tom Cruise and James Cameron have publicly backed the merger. Cruise told reporters he trusts Paramount to deliver on its 30-films pledge and called the studio's workforce "my family," according to Breitbart.

Reel360 flagged an important caveat: this is not an independent government audit. Paramount does not publicly disclose its California headcount or spending breakdown, so the LAEDC built its worst-case relocation numbers on assumptions supplied within a report the company itself paid for. Whether Bonta's team, or an outside auditor, produces a competing analysis before the September 24 bond hearing remains an open question.