Kalshi Bans George Santos for Life, Fines Him $71,356 Over State of the Union Bets

George Santos can no longer place a single bet on Kalshi, ever again.

The prediction market platform announced Monday, August 31, that it permanently banned the former New York congressman and fined him $71,356, the first lifetime ban the company has ever issued. The ban took effect the previous Friday, according to the Associated Press.

What Santos Actually Did

Between February 2 and February 25, 2026, Santos placed a series of trades on Kalshi contracts asking whether he would attend President Trump's State of the Union address, according to Kalshi's disciplinary filing. He wasn't supposed to be trading those contracts at all, since he had direct control over the outcome.

He did it anyway, and then worked the market. After betting he'd attend, Santos posted on X asking followers whether he should wear a "muted serious suit" or a "bedazzled one" to the event, according to the Daily Wire. The odds of his attendance jumped, and he cashed out with roughly $3,400 in profit that same day.

Days later he posted, "I'm going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery, guys." Kalshi had the odds of his attendance near 75% the night before the speech, according to PBS. Then a winter storm grounded his flight. He quietly shifted his bets toward not attending, didn't post about the change, and during the actual speech told his followers he was stuck at an airport, writing "FML" on X. That move netted him another roughly $14,400, for a total profit of $17,839.57, according to figures cited by the Daily Wire and CBS News.

Kalshi's Compliance Department concluded Santos "made these statements with the intent to manipulate the price of the Yes or No contracts that he intended to purchase," according to the company's filing.

Why the Ban Is Worse Than the CFTC Settlement

This isn't Santos's first punishment over the episode. Kalshi flagged the trades and referred the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which settled with Santos in July for $35,000, split between forfeiting his winnings and an additional fine, plus a three-year trading ban, according to CBS News and The Hill.

His attorney, Joseph Murray, said at the time that Santos had a "genuine intention" to attend the State of the Union and had booked a hotel and plane ticket before the storm changed his plans, according to The Independent. "Mr. Santos concealed neither his intention to attend, nor his change of plans to not attend the SOTU, from anyone," Murray said. "There was absolutely no intent to deceive any person, nor intent to manipulate any market." Murray also stressed the settlement was to avoid prolonged litigation, not an admission of guilt.

Kalshi's lifetime ban goes further than the CFTC did, and the company says that's because Santos stonewalled its own investigation. "He wouldn't talk to us, and actively dodged us," a Kalshi spokesperson told Wired. Robert DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement and legal counsel, told CBS News the company keeps a compliance team specifically "to catch bad actors, punish them, and deter other people from doing it again," adding that prediction markets are new to most people but "this type of behavior is not new."

Santos Fires Back

Santos responded on X the same day: "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let's see how much longer you guys are around for." He also called Kalshi an "unserious company" that "violates its own notices and deadlines," claiming he'd been given a 30-day notice on August 7. A source familiar with the matter told The Hill the notice period was actually 15 days.

Newsweek reports Santos can still appeal the lifetime ban to the CFTC.

Not an Isolated Case

Kalshi issued four other enforcement notices the same day. Unlike Santos, the other parties settled. Those included settlements with a California gubernatorial candidate, a Maine gubernatorial candidate, and a North Carolina congressional candidate over trades tied to their own campaigns, according to CNBC.

The pattern extends beyond politics. The CFTC settled a separate Kalshi case the week before with Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, who agreed to pay roughly $172,000 combined in fines and forfeited profits after allegedly making over $100,000 trading on which words or phrases Trump would use in his speeches, according to Engadget. Perez also received a three-year trading ban.

The Daily Beast notes that Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic adviser to Kalshi, a detail worth flagging given the platform's expanding role in politically sensitive markets, though no source alleges that role played any part in the Santos decision. Kalshi is also fighting lawsuits from roughly 20 states seeking to regulate its sports-related contracts, according to the same report.

The Backdrop

Santos was expelled from the House in December 2023 after an Ethics Committee investigation found "substantial evidence of wrongdoing." He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2024 and was sentenced to 87 months in prison. He served roughly 84 days before Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025, calling him a "rogue" who deserved credit for voting Republican, according to PBS.

On his podcast in March, Santos addressed the SOTU betting fallout directly: "I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That's to show you how fragile these markets are."

Whether Santos actually appeals to the CFTC, and whether that body has any authority to override a private platform's own ban, remains an open question neither Kalshi nor Santos's camp has answered publicly.