The Numbers Are In — They're Ugly

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released April import figures that mark a historic low. Japan imported just 4.07 million kiloliters of crude oil in April, roughly 850,000 barrels per day, according to ZeroHedge citing OilPrice.com. That's a 65.7% collapse from April 2025.

For context: Japan has been importing Middle East crude for over 40 years. These are the lowest numbers since METI started keeping records in 1979.

Middle East supply to Japan specifically cratered 67.2% year-over-year, per Japan's Finance Ministry. Saudi Arabia down nearly 58%. UAE down 69.4%. The Persian Gulf — which normally delivers over 90% of Japan's crude — still accounts for 93.7% of the reduced total. There's no real alternative. Japan is just getting far less of everything.

One Ship Got Through. One.

Japan celebrated the arrival of its first Middle East crude shipment via Hormuz since the Iran war began on February 28. One shipment. After months of blockade.

The CSIS analysis published April 22, 2026, authored by Matthew Funaiole, Harrison Prétat, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Jasper Verschuur, shows that ship traffic remains a fraction of prewar levels. Of the 187 vessels that successfully transited the strait since March 4, over half belong to shipping companies from just four countries. China sits at the top of that list — not coincidentally, given that Beijing has reportedly pressed Tehran directly to protect Chinese shipping interests.

So China's tankers move. Everyone else waits or reroutes.

The Strait Is Still Closed

Iran's foreign minister announced a reopening on April 17. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reversed that decision one day later, on April 18, according to CSIS. The Hormuz Strait Monitor dashboard — which aggregates real-time AIS tracking data — lists the current status as CLOSED, with commercial shipping suspended. Ships transiting: near zero. Normal rate: about 60 per day.

Over 150 vessels remain stranded — tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial ships. War risk insurance premiums are running at more than 16 times normal rates. Tanker spot rates for Gulf-to-Asia routes have tripled. The daily economic cost of the disruption exceeds $4 billion, per the Hormuz monitor.

Bloomberg's headline — "Strait of Hormuz Ship Transits Are Rising Thanks to Help From US" — is technically accurate. Transits are rising from near zero. But "rising" doesn't mean "open" or "normal" or "fixed."

China Is Playing Both Sides of This Crisis

Chinese shipping companies account for a disproportionate share of successful Hormuz transits since March 4, per CSIS vessel tracking data. China is simultaneously a major Iranian trade partner and publicly urging "de-escalation" while its tankers quietly move product.

Beijing isn't suffering the way Tokyo is.

The U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on April 19, flexing enforcement authority in the strait. That's a significant escalation of American presence. But it hasn't reopened the waterway for the 150-plus vessels still stranded.

The IEA Reserve Release Is a Band-Aid

Japan is drawing down its strategic petroleum reserves as part of an IEA-coordinated release of 400 million barrels of crude and oil products globally. Japan's drawdown is its largest ever.

This buys time. It does not solve the underlying problem.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration flagged in a June 16, 2025 analysis that in 2024, 20 million barrels per day — roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption — flowed through Hormuz. Almost none of that volume has a practical alternative route. The Cape of Good Hope detour adds up to 14 extra transit days and has already tripled shipping costs on key routes.

Releasing strategic reserves into a market where supply routes remain severed is arithmetic, not strategy. Reserves are finite. The war is not.

The Broader Picture

Japan's economic pain is a preview of broader exposure. South Korea, India, and parts of the EU face the same structural vulnerability. The CSIS analysis identifies billions in trade value at stake for major Asian and Gulf economies — and that was written in late April, before the full April import data landed.

Energy prices affect everything: fuel, food transport, manufacturing, heating. A 66% crude import collapse in the world's third-largest economy doesn't stay in Japan. It ripples.

One tanker got through. A hundred and fifty are still waiting. China is moving product. Everyone else is burning through reserves and hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough that the IRGC already walked back once.

The crisis remains unresolved.