The Deal Everyone Thought Was Done — Isn't

As recently as Saturday, President Trump told the world the US and Iran had "largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding. By Monday, his own Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in New Delhi telling reporters, "We thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today."

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai confirmed Monday what the cautious already suspected: "It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion. But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent — no-one can make such a claim."

The Hormuz Wrinkle Nobody Was Talking About

According to Reuters, citing a Nikkei report, Iran would NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately upon any peace deal. The timeline: 30 days after signing.

The New York Times separately reported that even after a Hormuz agreement, moving the backlog of roughly 1,500 stranded ships — vessels that have been stuck for nearly three months — will be a logistical nightmare. The strait handles roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Every day it remains closed affects global energy markets and consumer prices at the pump.

Trump Adds the Abraham Accords Demand — And That Changes Everything

The biggest new development: Trump wants more Arab nations to formally normalize relations with Israel — joining the Abraham Accords — as a condition of any Iran deal.

According to NPR, Trump said publicly Monday that any agreement must include more countries in the Middle East normalizing ties with Israel. Fox News confirmed Trump specifically called on Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations to sign on.

The original Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 during Trump's first term, brought the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco into normalized relations with Israel. Trump has expanded demands to nine nations and is now making it a prerequisite — not an aspiration.

Normalizing relations between sovereign Arab nations and Israel is a multi-year diplomatic process. Tying it to a 60-day ceasefire extension is either a bold negotiating gambit or an excuse to walk away from a deal.

Rand Paul vs. Republican Hawks — The GOP Is Split

Not everyone in Trump's own party is on the same page. According to NPR, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul praised the negotiations Sunday, writing: "War virtually always ends with negotiations. Critics of President Trump's peace negotiations should give President Trump the space to find an American First solution."

Fox News, meanwhile, reported that some Republican hardliners are panning Trump's emerging proposal as appeasement. Representative Brian Mast told Fox News he won't accept a "token deal."

Some Republicans want maximum pressure until Iran's nuclear program is dismantled entirely. Others see any negotiated exit from active conflict as a win.

Where's Khamenei?

The BBC, citing CBS News reporting, revealed that US intelligence believes Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is hiding in an undisclosed location. This is making it difficult for Iranian negotiators to get sign-off from the top.

This reflects a command-and-control problem inside a government trying to negotiate under wartime conditions. It explains why Rubio is getting radio silence and why Iranian semi-official news agencies — not the government directly — are doing the messaging.

According to NPR, an Iranian delegation led by parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf traveled to Qatar Monday for continued talks. Qalibaf previously negotiated with Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan last month.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets like the New York Times are framing this as Trump's pressure tactics having "little effect" on Iran's terms. Iran IS at the table. Iran's strait IS closed, hammering its own economy. The pressure clearly got Tehran talking — the question is whether the terms are achievable.

Fox News, on the other hand, is giving heavy airtime to Republican hawks without adequately explaining why a negotiated pause might serve US interests better than open-ended military operations.

Nobody fully controls this situation. Iran's leadership structure is disrupted. Trump is adding new conditions mid-negotiation. The Strait of Hormuz — the economic jugular of global oil markets — stays shut for at least another 30 days minimum if a deal is signed.

What This Means

If you drive a car, heat your home with oil, or buy anything that gets shipped, the Strait of Hormuz matters. It handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flow. Every week it stays closed affects energy prices.

As of Monday evening, there is NO signed agreement, there is NO firm timeline, and the Supreme Leader of the country being negotiated with is in hiding and difficult to reach.