The MOU That Might Not Exist

Axios broke the story May 28: U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and open nuclear talks. Two U.S. officials told Axios the deal terms were mostly locked in as of Tuesday. Iran supposedly came back and confirmed it had "the necessary approvals" to sign.

Then i24 News reported — almost immediately — that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, did NOT approve the deal. Iran has NOT confirmed the MOU publicly.

The U.S. side is telling reporters the deal is done. The Iranian side hasn't confirmed it. And the Supreme Leader's son is reportedly a no. This is a reported framework that awaits Trump's approval and apparently doesn't have firm buy-in from Tehran's top decision-makers.

What the MOU Actually Says — If It Holds

According to Axios and confirmed by U.S. sources speaking to CNBC, the terms include:

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be "unrestricted"
• Iran removes all mines within 30 days
• No tolls, no harassment of ships
• The U.S. naval blockade lifts in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping
• Iran agrees not to pursue a nuclear weapon
• The deal addresses disposal of Iran's highly enriched uranium and future enrichment terms
• Withdrawal of U.S. forces is still up for final agreement
• Nuclear demands require — Axios's word — "intensive negotiations"

One U.S. official told Axios: "This is an agreement to get everybody to the table. We will work out the details in the negotiations."

The hardest part hasn't even started.

Oman in the Crosshairs

The U.S. is now openly threatening a key Middle East ally. Trump said in front of cameras that the U.S. would "blow up" Oman if it doesn't "behave." That's not a figure of speech — he said it in the Oval Office responding to a reporter's question.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent followed up on X with a formal warning: "The United States Government will not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved — directly or indirectly — in facilitating tolls for the Strait."

Why? Because according to ZeroHedge, Iran and Oman have been in active discussions about setting up a toll system for vessels transiting Hormuz. Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin-Nejad told Bloomberg News that "Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation."

Oman is a U.S. strategic partner. It has also served as the backchannel for these very nuclear negotiations. The U.S. is now threatening the intermediary it needs to make peace — a serious diplomatic contradiction that has received minimal scrutiny.

Iran Still Launched Missiles at a U.S. Base

While diplomats were supposedly closing in on a deal, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base — reportedly the one from which American forces struck an Iranian military site the previous evening. According to U.S. Central Command, Kuwait intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward it. Several Iranian drones were also shot down.

U.S. Central Command called its own strikes "purely defensive" and said they targeted a site threatening U.S. troops and commercial shipping through Hormuz.

Both sides are exchanging fire and supposedly negotiating a 60-day truce at the same time.

Markets Are Being Played

The whipsaw on May 28 was extraordinary:

• Oil surged over 3% in early trading after the missile exchange — Brent hit $96.29, WTI back above $90
• Then the Axios MOU report dropped and oil reversed hard — Brent fell to $93.36, WTI to $88.61
• U.S. stocks reversed session losses and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh intraday records
• Treasuries rose, gold advanced, and the dollar fell against major peers
• All of this happened on a deal that Trump has NOT approved and Iran's leadership may have rejected

Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, told CNBC it's "incredibly hard" for investors to get a handle on the price swings. He noted that Iranian officials discussed an MOU on Wednesday, the White House called it a "complete fabrication," and then by Thursday a NEW MOU report emerged. He said oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $60-70 a barrel without a firm, verified resolution — not just a press report.

Citadel Securities analyst Scott Rubner told clients that markets are underpricing signs of an Iran deal — meaning stocks could have more upside if a real deal materializes. That's a reasonable bet. It's also a bet on a diplomatic process that has contradicted itself multiple times in 48 hours.

Prediction market platform Kalshi shows roughly a 55% chance of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by November — up 8 points on Thursday morning but still barely above a coin flip. Polymarket puts the odds of a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 42% yes, 59% no.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

CNN and CNBC are framing the MOU as a breakthrough. The Iranian side has not publicly validated it, and Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly rejected it.

ZeroHedge is covering the Khamenei rejection angle — which is critical — but buries it under market commentary.

The Oman story has received little attention. The U.S. threatened a strategic ally with military action and Treasury sanctions in the same week it's relying on that same ally as a diplomatic go-between. This deserves serious scrutiny.

What Comes Next

Gas prices remain elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is NOT normalized. A deal exists on paper — maybe — and Trump hasn't signed it. Iran's leadership is divided on whether to accept it.

Until ships are actually moving freely through Hormuz and both sides stop shooting at each other, the crisis is not resolved.