The Ceasefire That Isn't

Five Americans were injured at Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base after Iran launched a Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile at the facility, according to Bloomberg. The missile was intercepted, but falling debris hit the base. Two U.S. drones were also reported destroyed or damaged in the same attack, according to both Bloomberg and DropSite News.

This occurred during an active ceasefire.

Five American military personnel were wounded in the strike. Most mainstream outlets have emphasized the diplomatic process over the missile attack.

Iran Moves to Legally Own the Strait

While negotiators talk, Tehran is moving in the opposite direction on the ground — and in its parliament.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters declared via Al Jazeera that "the management of the Strait of Hormuz is exercised with full authority by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement demanded all commercial vessels and tankers obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy before transit.

State-run Nour News reported that legislation formalizing Tehran's control of the Strait has been finalized and is headed for a parliamentary vote. Iranian lawmaker Alireza Salimi told Bloomberg that "only Iran and Oman can decide on Strait of Hormuz management" and confirmed that Oman has given preliminary approval to Tehran's plan.

The Strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil, according to CNBC. Gas prices in the U.S. averaged $4.34 per gallon as of Sunday, per AAA.

Trump Toughens the Terms — Iran Says It'll Respond in Kind

The New York Times reported Sunday that Trump has toughened the terms of a potential framework Memorandum of Understanding and sent those revisions back to Tehran, citing three officials. The precise changes were not disclosed, but two officials told the Times that Trump is specifically concerned about provisions that would unfreeze Iranian funds — a clear shot at the Obama-era JCPOA playbook he's long criticized.

According to ZeroHedge citing the Times, the move is meant to ratchet up pressure after Iran refused to budge on surrendering its nuclear material.

Iran's response, per Tasnim News Agency: if Trump changes the draft, Iran will make its own revisions. Nothing is finalized. Iran says it's prepared for the possibility of no deal.

Tehran's Two Sticking Points

Iran has publicly identified the two issues blocking any MOU: unfreezing of assets and sanctions, and the nuclear file.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called out Iran's strategic position on Fox News, arguing that Tehran made a "big mistake" by attacking its neighbors and losing regional allies. Bessent also warned that "they're going to have to start taking down the wells" — a reference to Iran's oil infrastructure, which the U.S. has targeted and can target again.

Trump: "No Hurry" — But the Threat Is Real

Speaking to Fox News Saturday in an interview with his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, President Trump said he is in "no hurry" to close a deal. His exact quote: "I'd like to say I'm in a hurry because gasoline prices are going to come tumbling down, but if you're going to be in a hurry, you're not going to make a good deal."

He also made the military option explicit: "We're going to make a great deal, otherwise we'll just go back and finish it off militarily."

Trump ended a White House meeting Friday without a final decision after previously saying he'd make a "final determination" at that session, according to CNBC citing Axios.

Assessment

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton has argued consistently that any deal short of full dismantlement just restarts the clock on Iran's nuclear program. Given that Iran is currently legislating control of a global energy chokepoint while in ceasefire negotiations, his skepticism of the negotiations carries weight.

Five Americans were wounded by an Iranian missile. Iran is simultaneously passing laws to own the Strait of Hormuz and demanding unfrozen cash before discussing nukes. Trump says he is not in a hurry, and the deal he sent back is tougher than the one Iran already rejected. Prediction markets give a permanent peace deal by June 30 a 30% chance.