The Ballistic Missile Is the New Development

This is NOT the same story as the drone intercepts near Bandar Abbas.

At 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27, Iran launched a ballistic missile at Kuwait, according to U.S. Central Command. CENTCOM called it an "egregious ceasefire violation" — language notably stronger than anything used to describe the prior tit-for-tat drone exchanges.

Kuwait's military confirmed its air defenses were actively intercepting threats. This is a direct strike on a U.S. coalition partner's soil. Drones are one thing. Ballistic missiles at Kuwait are another.

Iran Also Fired on Ships in the Strait

According to The Guardian, Iranian forces fired on four vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz — around 12:35 a.m. local time — because they did so "without coordination with the security forces." Iran is now demanding coordination rights for ships passing through an international waterway.

Amos Hochstein, who served as senior energy advisor to President Biden, told CNBC's Squawk Box: "No matter what happens, the Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future, it doesn't even matter what the deal says. Everybody in the region believes that."

The mainstream press has largely ignored it.

The Fake MOU Story — and Who's Spinning What

Iran's state television claimed Wednesday that Tehran had agreed to a draft memorandum of understanding with the U.S. to reopen Hormuz to pre-war commercial traffic levels — with Iran and Oman jointly managing it, according to Reuters. The White House called it "a complete fabrication."

Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had actually reached a deal framework pending Trump's final approval — though that report was behind a paywall and could not be fully verified.

Trump said flatly: "No nation will control shipping through the strait." Secretary of State Marco Rubio had told reporters in India just days ago that a deal could be finalized in "a couple of days" and that negotiators were down to "disagreements over a word, a sentence."

The markets are getting whipsawed by this contradiction.

Oil: Markets Are Pricing In a Resolution That Isn't Happening

Brent crude climbed 2% to $96.28 per barrel by Thursday morning, per CNBC. WTI hit $90.75. This came after markets had already priced in optimism over a possible MOU — Brent had dipped as low as $94 on peace hopes — only to reverse sharply on the new strikes.

Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, told CNBC the situation is "incredibly hard" for investors and "ultimately unsustainable."

Bank of America Securities laid out two scenarios. A full reopening of the Strait brings Brent to an average of $82/barrel for 2026. A partial reopening — 50% to 75% of pre-war traffic — keeps Brent at $103/barrel average for the year. Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Bank of America Europe, wrote Wednesday that even under an optimistic scenario, prices won't collapse back to pre-war levels because pent-up demand will absorb supply quickly.

For regular Americans: gas prices are NOT coming down fast, even if a deal gets signed tomorrow.

Nobody Evacuated American Civilians. Nobody.

The State Department never tasked U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) with evacuating American civilians — meaning non-government personnel — from the Middle East after the war started.

TRANSCOM told Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in a letter shared exclusively with CNBC that it "did not receive a tasking to move American civilians (non-U.S. government personnel)." TRANSCOM did move more than 1,500 people affiliated with the State Department — but that's government employees, not ordinary Americans stranded in the region.

War broke out in late February. Americans in the region described the government's response as "chaotic and confusing." TRANSCOM has the aircraft and the capacity. The State Department simply never made the call.

Warren is using this politically, and that's fair game. But the underlying fact is not partisan: the government had evacuation tools available and chose not to use them for private citizens. That deserves answers regardless of who's asking.

Trump Threatens Oman. Iran Backs Oman.

In a surreal subplot, Trump reportedly warned Oman — the country serving as a neutral back-channel for U.S.-Iran negotiations — to "behave" or face consequences. The exact wording, per The Hill, included a threat to "blow 'em up."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei responded Thursday by publicly backing Oman. Trump just handed Iran a propaganda gift by threatening the one country helping broker a deal.

What the Casualty Count Looks Like Now

Per Wikipedia's running 2026 Iran war article, which aggregates official and independent reporting: 15 U.S. soldiers killed, 538 military personnel wounded. Iran's losses per U.S. and Israeli estimates: 6,000+ military personnel killed, ~15,000 wounded, 190+ ballistic missile launchers destroyed, 155 naval vessels destroyed or damaged. The human rights group HRANA puts Iranian total dead at 3,636 — including 1,221 military, 1,701 civilians.

Three months in. No deal. Ballistic missiles hitting Kuwait now.