Since Operation Epic Fury launched 100 days ago, the conflict has produced a fragile, repeatedly violated ceasefire — and Sunday night delivered the biggest breach yet.

What Actually Happened Overnight

Iran fired missiles at northern Israel on Sunday, accusing Jerusalem of violating the April ceasefire through its sustained strikes on Lebanon. The IDF then confirmed it struck military targets across western and central Iran — with explosions reported in at least six cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Kermanshah, according to ZeroHedge citing unconfirmed reports.

Israel specifically bombed Iran's Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, per ZeroHedge. The targeting of economic infrastructure rather than purely military assets signals a shift in Israeli strategy.

On Monday, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs told CNBC that military operations against Israel have ended.

The Conditions Iran Attached

Tehran's ceasefire declaration comes with a loaded caveat: Iran will resume hostilities if Israel continues operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, a senior Israeli official confirmed to Bloomberg that operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days — and that Beirut's Dahieh suburb could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements continue.

Iran says stop hitting Lebanon or we restart. Israel says we're not stopping Lebanon. The two positions appear incompatible.

Trump Is Losing Control of the Room

Trump told NBC News on Friday that Netanyahu "won't have any choice" but to accept a U.S.-negotiated deal because Trump "calls the shots." Then Israel ignored Trump's direct plea NOT to retaliate against Iran's missile strikes — and hit anyway.

According to CBS, Trump did NOT order any U.S. defensive efforts to protect Israel from the Iranian ballistic missile attack.

Trump posted on Truth Social Monday morning that both sides "are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE" and that "Final negotiations on Peace are proceeding." He also confirmed the U.S. naval blockade remains in place until a "Final Deal" is reached.

But an Iranian official linked to U.S.-Iran talks told MS NOW that "a deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage." The official blamed Trump for the Lebanon situation and the current escalation. Most mainstream coverage has downplayed this statement.

The Nuclear Deal Background

Trump has been attacking the Obama-era JCPOA again, calling it "tantamount to giving them a nuclear weapon" in an NBC News interview Friday. He's promised his deal will be "FAR BETTER."

According to CNBC's reporting, many national security experts say the JCPOA actually succeeded in halting Iran's nuclear progress and enabling monitoring — it wasn't perfect, but it worked on its core mandate. Trump pulled out in 2018 and didn't renegotiate. Iran then resumed enrichment. Any deal Trump negotiates now comes at a point where Iran has advanced its nuclear capabilities significantly further than they were in 2018.

The war is now in its fourth month — well past Trump's initial "four to six week" estimate.

Markets Are Shrugging — For Now

S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% Monday morning and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.6%, according to CNBC. This came after the Nasdaq dropped 4.2% on Friday — its worst single-day drop since April 2025 — driven by a chip stock selloff unrelated to Iran.

West Texas Intermediate oil spiked more than 5% overnight, then pulled back to trade around $91 a barrel after Iran declared its operations over, per CNBC.

South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8% Monday. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.85%. The chip rout in Asia was severe enough to trigger a 20-minute trading halt in South Korea, according to ZeroHedge.

The 100-day market scorecard, per CNBC: S&P 500 has hit new all-time highs despite the war, driven by AI infrastructure spending. European stocks have struggled more because they're more exposed to energy price spikes. The U.S. is relatively insulated because of domestic oil production, though WTI at $91 poses challenges for American consumers.

Iran Is Also Collecting a Toll

Iran has been collecting $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ZeroHedge citing Fars News. That amounts to a de facto piracy tax, ongoing and generating revenue for Iran's military even under blockade conditions.

Where This Stands

Iran declared a ceasefire it will abandon the moment Israel does something it doesn't like — and Israel has already told the world it's not changing its Lebanon operations. Trump says he calls the shots, but Israel shot anyway and Iran's negotiators are walking away from the table.

At 100 days, this war has produced: oil above $90, rising inflation across multiple major economies, a nuclear deal still nowhere near signed, and a ceasefire that breaks every few weeks.

Trump predicted Monday that "things should move quickly." He's been saying that for four months.