Where Things Stand Monday Morning

Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday that a deal with Iran was "largely negotiated" and would be announced "shortly." By Monday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei was publicly pumping the brakes.

"It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion," Baqaei told reporters at a weekly briefing, according to CBS News. "But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent — no one can make such a claim."

He also accused Washington of shifting its positions.

The Leaked Draft Fiasco

Iranian state television claimed Wednesday to have a copy of a draft memorandum of understanding — one that would commit Tehran to restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels within one month of an agreement, according to Reuters.

Markets moved immediately. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped as low as 3.4% to $90.71 per barrel. Brent fell 2.9% to $96.64, according to CNBC. European stocks erased gains on the same news, per Bloomberg.

Then the White House called the entire report "a complete fabrication." Oil clawed back some losses the moment that statement landed.

What Trump's Announcement Actually Said — and Didn't Say

On Saturday, Trump said he'd held calls with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — all focused on finalizing terms with Iran.

The post said details "will be announced shortly," including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump did NOT mention: Iran's nuclear program. Highly enriched uranium. Two things his own administration has repeatedly called critical to ending the war, per CNBC's reporting.

Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency also pushed back directly, calling Trump's "largely negotiated" framing "incomplete and inconsistent with reality" and stating that even under a deal, the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian management.

Those are two very different visions of what a deal looks like.

The Senior Official's More Optimistic Take

A senior Trump administration official told CBS News that Iran had in principle agreed to dispose of highly enriched uranium and that there is a "broad commitment on principles." The sourced proposal, as of Saturday, included a process to reopen Hormuz, the unfreezing of some Iranian assets held in foreign banks, and a continuation of negotiations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also indicated further details would be announced shortly.

So the U.S. side is saying progress is real. The Iranian side is saying don't pop the champagne. Both can be simultaneously true in a negotiation — but right now the gap between those two positions is not small.

The Mediator's Central Role

Pakistan is playing a central backroom role. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir — described as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran — was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday alongside Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, according to CBS News.

By Monday, Munir was in Beijing alongside Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meeting with Xi Jinping, per Pakistani television and Reuters. China said it would work with Pakistan to make "positive contributions to the early restoration of peace."

The back-channel running between Washington and Tehran runs through Islamabad — and Islamabad is simultaneously coordinating with Beijing. China has an obvious interest in how this ends, particularly around oil flows and sanctions relief for Iran.

Russia Is Winning Every Day This Doesn't Resolve

Bloomberg's headline says it plainly: Russia is boosting crude flows as the Kremlin banks gains from the Iran war. Every week the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted is a week Moscow sells oil at elevated prices into markets desperate for supply. Russia has ZERO incentive to help broker a fast resolution.

When Does Oil Actually Come Back?

Even if a deal is signed tomorrow, don't expect gasoline prices to normalize fast. Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., said last week it will take at least four months to ramp oil flows back to 80% of normal — even if the conflict ends immediately. Full normalization won't happen until Q1 or Q2 of 2027, he said, according to CNBC.

Iran's proposal on the table, per the leaked draft, envisions Hormuz returning to normal traffic within one month. Al-Jaber's estimate is closer to four months minimum. Industry veterans don't believe a switch can just be flipped.

Where This Stands

Trump says largely negotiated. Iran says not imminent. The White House calls the leaked draft fabricated. Russia is profiting. China is whispering in Pakistan's ear. And the nuclear question — the whole reason this war started — hasn't been publicly resolved.

This deal isn't done.