Iran Claims Midterm Vote as Rejection of Trump's War, While Khamenei Rules Out Any Shift in Tehran's Stance

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the war has spread to Lebanon and Yemen and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Nov. 4, it has landed in American politics. Democrats won the House and the Senate on Tuesday, and Tehran is claiming credit.

Tehran gloats, then warns

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, wrote on X: "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message." He added that if Washington ignores the vote, "it will learn our NO comes with a nightmare."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson posted that Americans had sent a clear message. The spokesperson warned that if the U.S. keeps ignoring reality, "the consequences of this grave miscalculation will extend far beyond what you have already witnessed."

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, said on his social media account that anyone hoping for a change in U.S. behavior through "partisan or factional shifts" is "gravely mistaken." He also wrote that "the slightest inclination toward submission" would squander what Iran has gained at the cost of its "martyrs."

The tone in Tehran was celebratory. Thousands marched at a government-organized rally marking the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover, burning American and Israeli flags and chanting "Death to America." A billboard over Enqelab Square declares in English, "We will kill Trump."

Ehsan Movaheidian, an international relations scholar, said Iran "has succeeded in regime change in America." Ali Nikzad, the parliament's first deputy speaker, called the Republican losses "aftershocks of Trump's defeat by the Iranian people."

That is Iran's framing. Two senior Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran also fears Trump could try to offset the political blow with a military strike, and that the country remains on high alert.

What Trump and Vance said

Trump did not dispute that the war hurt his party. "I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term," he told reporters. He said he would act the same way again: "You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."

He also said: "We've totally broken their military. The navy's gone. Their air force is gone. Their anti-aircraft is gone." And he said he knew the war would hurt Republicans at the polls: "Whether it impacted it or not, Iran can't have a nuclear weapon."

Vice President JD Vance had already blamed the war publicly. According to his post on X, voters who backed Republicans in 2024 and switched this year cited opposition to the war, inflation and cost of living, dissatisfaction with the administration's "America First" approach, and a desire to change Washington's relationship with Israel. Trump said he knew how Vance felt.

The administration's position is that the long-term goal of keeping Iran from a nuclear weapon outweighs short-term price pain. Exit polls cited by CBS News show most voters think the U.S. made the wrong call in attacking Iran, including about a quarter of Republicans. Those voters did not accept the trade.

Congress gets a lever

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday the war "must end." He said Democrats' incoming majority could use the "power of the purse" against a president "who does war without the consent of the American people." Democrats have pushed war powers resolutions throughout the conflict. Those bills would force Trump to pull troops out of the fight.

Schumer has not said which funding measures Democrats would target or when. The new Congress has not yet been seated.

The war itself is not over

The region has been bracing for weeks over whether the U.S. will resume full-scale operations against Iran, which have been paused for almost two months. Talks to prevent renewed fighting are continuing. U.S. allies in the region are urging Washington not to resume, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly pushed for more strikes.

Trump has swung between threatening major action and pushing for a deal. On Tuesday he declined to rule out resuming combat after the vote.

Ceasefire agreements have not stopped the shooting. Military confrontations have continued in southern Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran declared the strait closed, and the U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on Iran. Global oil and gas prices climbed sharply as a result. Brent crude fell significantly on Wednesday.

Iranian leaders say the election proves their strategy worked. Voters, exit polls and Vance point to gas prices, inflation and doubts about the war's purpose. Iranian officials have offered no evidence beyond the election results themselves that Tehran influenced the vote.

Trump now faces mediators pressing for a deal, an Israeli government urging more strikes, and an incoming Democratic Congress with funding leverage. It remains to be seen whether he escalates before that Congress is seated or uses the talks to try to end the war.