Since the April 8 ceasefire, the slow unraveling was always the real story. Sunday made it official.

On Day 100 of the Iran war — launched February 28 when the U.S. and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — Iran fired what Israeli officials described as roughly ten ballistic missiles in multiple waves targeting northern Israel, the Sharon region, and Samaria. The IDF said all were intercepted or fell in open areas. Two people were injured rushing to shelters, according to Breitbart News. Schools across Israel were ordered closed for Monday.

Israel responded before dawn Monday with airstrikes on central and western Iran. According to NPR, Iranian state television reported explosions in Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz, and Tehran. Iran closed airspace around Imam Khomeini International Airport. Iranian officials offered no damage assessments.

How We Got Here

The chain of events is straightforward. Earlier Sunday, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israeli communities. Israel struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern Dahiyeh suburb — a strike that killed two people and wounded 20, per Lebanon's health ministry, according to NPR. Washington had asked Israel days earlier to stand down on Beirut. Israel did it anyway.

Iran had warned explicitly that any strike on Beirut would mean full-scale war. Tehran followed through.

The Guardian, cited by BBC's newspaper review, called the missile barrage "the most serious escalation" since April. The IDF confirmed it intercepted all incoming missiles, but also said publicly that "the defense is not hermetic." That's a warning, not a reassurance.

Yemen Gets Involved Too

Sirens sounded across Israel Monday morning after the IDF said a missile launched from Yemen targeted the country, according to NPR. Israel's rescue services reported no casualties. The Houthis didn't immediately claim it — they often wait hours or days — but the pattern is familiar.

Iran's Houthi proxies had largely stayed on the sidelines during this war. Their reentry, even partial, expands the battlefield and complicates any negotiated exit.

Trump Says He's 'Very Close to a Deal' — While Israel Is Bombing Iran

President Trump moved fast Sunday night. According to Breitbart, Trump told Axios he was calling Netanyahu immediately to urge restraint: "I am going to call Netanyahu right now and tell him not to strike back."

That call didn't stop Israel. Airstrikes hit Iran before dawn.

Trump told Fox News: "What I would suggest to Iran: You've shot your missiles, that's enough. Get back to the table and make a deal."

He told the Financial Times the missile attack would have "no meaningful effect" on negotiations and said flatly of Netanyahu: "He won't have any choice. I call the shots. I call all the shots."

The U.S. ally Trump has staked enormous political capital on just defied a direct White House request on Beirut — and then launched strikes on Iran after Trump urged restraint. Either Trump controls the situation or he doesn't. Sunday night suggests he doesn't.

On NBC's Meet the Press — an interview that aired Sunday and was taped Friday in Wisconsin — Trump addressed his "no new wars" campaign promise. His answer, per NPR: "I didn't guarantee no war. Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?" He also said the war with Iran "is not an endless war" and claimed he's "doing the world a service" by stopping Iran's nuclear program. He ended the interview abruptly when NBC's Kristen Welker pushed back.

What the Markets Already Know

Asian markets opened Monday and immediately priced in the obvious. South Korea's Kospi index plunged nearly 9% at open, triggering a circuit breaker halt for the third time this year, according to BBC. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell roughly 4% — its worst single-day drop in three months. Samsung and SK Hynix shares were sharply lower.

Chief investment strategist Charu Chanana of Saxo told BBC traders are navigating a "messy mix" of AI valuation concerns and rising energy prices from the renewed Middle East strikes. Oil prices rose Monday morning on the exchange-of-fire news.

The impact extends globally. The ECB is already facing rate pressure from the oil shock. The Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of global oil and gas once flowed — remains effectively closed. Every day of conflict is a tax on every economy on earth.

The Ceasefire That Never Existed

Left-leaning outlets are focused heavily on the humanitarian toll and Israeli defiance of Washington — legitimate angles. Right-leaning outlets are emphasizing Trump's deal-making posture and framing the escalation as a reason to keep pressure on Iran.

Both are underplaying a fundamental problem: the ceasefire architecture was never real. It required Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah rejected the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire deal outright, per NPR. It required Iran to accept a deal that didn't include Lebanon. Iran refused. Pakistan's interior minister was in Tehran Sunday trying to restart talks. Egypt's foreign minister and his Qatari counterpart were discussing "proposed elements" of a potential agreement. None of that stopped a single missile.

Mediation talk is not the same as a ceasefire.

The Present Moment

Day 100 of this war ended with Iran and Israel bombing each other again, the Houthis firing at Israel again, Asian markets in freefall, and Trump insisting a deal is days away.

If Trump's deal materializes, he will have earned credit for it. But right now, the man who says he calls all the shots couldn't stop Israel from striking Beirut or Iran from firing ballistic missiles — and he couldn't stop Israel from hitting Iran back before sunrise.

Words are not a ceasefire. Missiles are.