Intel Chief Clayton Warns Iranian Plots to Kill Americans Are at 'Advanced Stages' as Embassy Cuts Widen

The intelligence community now says in writing that Iran's efforts to kill Americans abroad have moved past the talking stage. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent an unclassified memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, Oct. 23, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe copied.

"Through various channels, we have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel," Clayton wrote. "The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries."

U.S. officials have confirmed the memo is authentic. Axios published it first. Three officials told the Associated Press, on condition of anonymity, that it went to Rubio in his dual role as secretary of state and national security adviser.

What the memo does and does not say

The document is thin on detail. It identifies no specific targets, describes no plots, and does not name the countries outside the Middle East where Americans could be at risk. It does not say whether an attack is imminent.

Clayton did flag a practical problem. The intelligence is relevant to more State Department personnel than are cleared to see it. He said it has been shared with appropriately cleared senior officials and offered to downgrade as much of it as possible so Rubio can distribute it more widely.

Drawdowns across the region

The memo followed a run of staffing moves. On Wednesday, Oct. 21, the State Department ordered nonessential personnel and family members out of Saudi Arabia, covering the Riyadh embassy and the Jeddah and Dhahran consulates. The order came amid intensified Houthi missile and drone attacks on the kingdom.

On Friday the department cut staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. All four were already under "restricted operations" status, they remain open, and unlike in Saudi Arabia, personnel there are not ordered to leave.

A U.S. official put the logic plainly: "We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff."

When the department announced the cuts this week, it pointed to Houthi threats and did not mention Iranian plots directed at U.S. personnel. Three officials later told the AP that both Iran and the Houthis are tied to the changes.

State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott called reports that the department had ordered all nonessential staff out of the entire Gulf "inaccurate." The departure order applies only to Saudi Arabia.

Strikes still on the table

U.S. officials have flatly denied the drawdowns are linked to any new U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran. Trump's own words keep that question open. At a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday he touted the campaign dubbed Operation Epic Fury and said: "we may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree. If they're smart, they'll just say, 'Let's get down to business.'" He paused new attacks earlier this month.

Mediators are trying to bring Washington and Tehran back to formal talks. The war has reached a stalemate. According to Iranian state television, the Revolutionary Guard navy again threatened this week to hit U.S. bases in the region if the United States keeps helping guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Saturday, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and Yanbu. The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, airports and military sites. Saudi authorities have not confirmed all of the claimed targets were hit.

The war on the campaign trail

The war is now a central argument in the Nov. 3 midterms. Speaking in Cleveland on Saturday, former President Barack Obama called it "an unnecessary war that nobody asked for."

Obama also mocked the administration's claims of victory. "Iran now has veto power over the Strait of Hormuz, where oil goes through to get to the world," he said, arguing that Iranian threats to shipping have unsettled oil exporters.

Trump's response on energy costs, which have jumped because of the wars in Iran and Ukraine, was to call oil prices "temporarily high." At a rally in Perry, Georgia, he said: "our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time, and those pump prices are going to come down."

Republicans are trying to keep control of Congress with a war the AP describes as unpopular and as having spiked energy costs for Americans.

Trump has announced no decision on new strikes. The open question is whether Clayton's offer to declassify more of the Iran plotting intelligence widens the circle of State personnel who can see it, and whether the four restricted-operations embassies stay at reduced staffing as the Nov. 3 election approaches.