Hurricane Nolo Strengthens South of Hawaii, Big Island Faces Up to 35 Inches of Rain This Weekend

Since Hurricane Polo held at Category 4 and Hurricane Odalys formed earlier this week, a third system taking aim at Hawaii has gotten a name and gotten stronger. Tropical Storm Nolo, which formed Wednesday, September 23, was upgraded to a hurricane Thursday night, according to CBS News and Yahoo News, both citing the National Hurricane Center.

As of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. HST advisory Thursday, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flying through the storm found a peak flight-level wind of 71 knots and a minimum central pressure of 984 millibars, enough to justify the upgrade with an initial intensity of 65 knots, roughly 75 mph. CBS News and Yahoo News both reported the same 75 mph figure as of Thursday evening, with the storm's core about 450 miles south-southeast of Honolulu and 270 miles south of South Point on the Big Island.

Track and Intensity Forecast

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's forecast discussion says Nolo will keep moving north to north-northeast through Friday, then take a sharp turn west, or even west-southwest, in the vicinity of the Big Island by Saturday. Forecasters wrote that a deep-layer trough currently steering the storm will cut off and move west of Hawaii, letting mid-level ridging build back in and bend Nolo's path.

The intensity outlook has climbed. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's Thursday evening discussion forecasts Nolo reaching a peak intensity of 115 knots, about 132 mph, as it turns westward in the 48-to-72-hour window, which would put it at strong Category 4 strength. That's higher than the Category 3, 120-mph peak the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported Wednesday night based on an earlier forecast cycle. The jump reflects rapidly evolving guidance, not a walk-back. Forecasters told the Star-Advertiser that low wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures and ample deep-layer moisture support the storm intensifying quickly.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's discussion also flagged that track guidance shifted substantially southward compared to the previous cycle, and that the official forecast track sits on the northern edge of that guidance envelope. Forecasters explicitly wrote that future southward adjustments may still be necessary. The Star-Advertiser separately quoted forecasters saying "confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal," a caveat that matters given how close the projected path already runs to the Big Island's south shore.

Watches, Warnings and Rainfall

A hurricane watch is in effect for Hawaii County, the Big Island, along with a tropical storm warning, while Maui County is under a tropical storm watch, according to the Office of Honolulu's Mayor. The National Hurricane Center, as relayed by CBS News and Yahoo News, said the Big Island could see 15 to 20 inches of rain, with up to 35 inches possible in some areas, warning of "catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain."

Maui is forecast to get 5 to 10 inches, with up to 20 inches in isolated spots, also carrying flood and mudslide risk. The remaining islands, including Oahu, are expected to see just 1 to 3 inches, with up to 6 inches possible and only isolated flooding likely.

Hawaii's Department of Land and Natural Resources closed all state parks on the Big Island Thursday and is set to close all state parks on Maui Friday because of the storm, CBS News and Yahoo News both reported.

Oahu Watches and Waits

The City and County of Honolulu said in a statement that Oahu is not expected to see the severe conditions forecast for the Big Island and Maui County, but residents could still face strong gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and elevated surf. The mayor's office said the city's Department of Emergency Management is coordinating with the National Weather Service and state emergency management, reviewing staffing and equipment so it can respond if the forecast shifts. The city also said it stands ready to send personnel and resources to the Big Island or Maui if requested.

One discrepancy worth noting: the Epoch Times' report on this storm carries the headline "Hawaii Faces Another Hurricane Threat as Nolo Grows in Central Pacific" but refers to the storm as "Lolo" throughout its body text, an inconsistency not found in the National Hurricane Center's own advisories, the Honolulu mayor's statement, or reporting from CBS News, Yahoo News and the Star-Advertiser, all of which consistently identify the storm as Nolo.

What Comes Next

Nolo adds to what CBS News and Yahoo News both called an unusually active Pacific season, following Hurricane Lowell's damaging pass near Kauai and Niihau earlier this month and Hurricane Lala washing away roughly 100 homes near Hawaii in August. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's own forecasters acknowledge the track carries more uncertainty than normal, meaning the difference between a close brush and a more direct hit on the Big Island's south shore may not be clear until closer to the storm's expected westward turn Saturday.