Homicides Fell 18% Nationwide in Early 2026, But San Francisco and Norfolk Both Spiked

Since the Council on Criminal Justice's July 23 report confirmed homicides fell an average of 18% across 21 of 30 surveyed cities in the first half of 2026, the focus is on which cities didn't follow the trend.

The CCJ, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit, analyzed 13 crime types across 36 large American cities using data collected in early July 2026. Nine of those 13 crime types dropped nationally in the first half of the year. Carjackings fell the most. Residential burglaries dropped 13% year-over-year and now sit 50% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, according to the CCJ's own report.

This extends a decline that started in the second half of 2022 and, if it holds through December, would mark the lowest national homicide rate since at least 1900, according to CCJ researchers Ernesto Lopez and Bobby Boxerman. CCJ's prior report already projected 2025 would hit that historic low. What's new is that 2026 isn't backsliding.

Eight Cities Moved the Wrong Direction

Eight of the 30 cities in the primary homicide sample saw increases compared to the first half of 2025, according to CBS News' review of the CCJ data. Four of those—Norfolk, San Francisco, Austin, and Minneapolis, along with Pittsburgh—actually posted more homicides in 2026 than they did in the same period back in 2019, before the pandemic-era crime spike ever happened.

Norfolk, Virginia, saw the steepest jump: a 64% increase in homicides, according to Fox affiliate coverage citing the CCJ report. San Francisco posted a 55% increase over the same period in 2025.

San Francisco's numbers deserve a closer look because the city's own police department disputes the framing. Evan Sernoffsky, a spokesperson for the San Francisco Police Department, told CBS News the city logged 16 homicides in the first half of 2026 versus 13 in the same period last year. That's a real increase, but it's happening off a record-low base. San Francisco ended 2025 with its lowest homicide rate in over 70 years, according to CBS News. A jump from 13 to 16 is roughly a 23% increase, notably smaller than the 55% figure the CCJ report cited for San Francisco, underscoring how small sample sizes can produce very different percentage swings depending on the exact numbers and time frame used. In a city of roughly 800,000 people, that's just three additional homicides. Sernoffsky said, "We recognize that homicides have increased slightly this year compared to last year. Even one homicide is one too many, and the SFPD will continue to make these crimes our top priority."

Percentage swings on small numbers can make cities look more dangerous than they are. The CCJ report itself notes it relies on preliminary data gathered shortly after the reporting period, which can differ from final FBI figures released later.

No Single Explanation

Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the CCJ, has been consistent on this point across outlets: there's no unifying policy explanation. "Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity," Gelb said, according to both CBS News and Fox's livenowfox.com.

Gelb pointed to broader forces, technology keeping people at home more, and declining alcohol abuse, as possible drivers, rather than crediting any specific mayor, police chief, or prosecutor. This undercuts any political narrative, left or right, that wants to claim credit for the national drop or pin blame for the local spikes on a specific district attorney or police department.

Gelb also highlighted that violent crime overall is becoming less lethal. He said a significant share of violent incidents are ending without a fatality, with that non-fatal outcome rate dropping 23%, suggesting better emergency medical response or fewer weapons involved may be doing some of the work here, not just less violence occurring in the first place.

What's Still Unresolved

Aggravated assaults barely moved, down just 2% from the first half of 2025 and 3% from 2019 levels, according to the CCJ report. Drug offenses rose compared to 2025 but remain below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Neither of those numbers fits a clean "crime is over" narrative, and the CCJ researchers explicitly say their report is not meant to prove any specific policy succeeded or failed.

The final word on 2026 won't come until the FBI releases its official year-end crime statistics, likely sometime in 2027. Until then, San Francisco, Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis are the five cities worth watching to see whether their increases are a blip or the start of a local reversal against the national trend.